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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Internacional vs Fluminense

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Match Timeline

14'
InternacionalVictor Gabriel🟨
Yellow Card
18'
InternacionalAllex🟨
Yellow Card
27'
FluminenseJemmes🟨
Yellow Card
31'
InternacionalAlexandro Bernabei🟨
Yellow Card
39'
InternacionalAlexandro Bernabei⚽
Normal Goal → Alerrandro
41'
InternacionalBruno Gomes🟨
Yellow Card
44'
FluminenseAlisson🟨
Yellow Card
46'
InternacionalAllex🔄
Substitution 1 → Vitinho
46'
FluminenseJemmes🔄
Substitution 1 → Jefferson Savarino
46'
FluminenseAgustín Canobbio🔄
Substitution 2 → Kevin Serna
49'
InternacionalAlerrandro⚽
Normal Goal
56'
FluminenseKevin Serna🟨
Yellow Card
63'
FluminenseFacundo Bernal🔄
Substitution 3 → Nonato
70'
InternacionalBruno Henrique🔄
Substitution 2 → Thiago Maia
70'
InternacionalAlerrandro🔄
Substitution 3 → Rafael Borré
74'
FluminenseAlisson🔄
Substitution 4 → Hércules
74'
FluminenseYeferson Soteldo🔄
Substitution 5 → Rodrigo Castillo
85'
InternacionalJohan Carbonero🔄
Substitution 4 → Braian Aguirre
89'
InternacionalAlexandro Bernabei🔄
Substitution 5 → Kayky

Match Statistics

9Shots on Goal6
6Shots off Goal3
18Total Shots11
3Blocked Shots2
7Shots insidebox3
11Shots outsidebox8
25Fouls18
3Corner Kicks3
33Ball Possession67
4Yellow Cards3
6Goalkeeper Saves7
312Total passes634
252Passes accurate555
81Passes %88
1.78expected_goals0.9
0.94goals_prevented0.94

Tipster preview

Value VinnyValue VinnyWon

Internacional vs Fluminense: Under 2.5 Goals Value

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
81%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+31.2%

The odds don’t lie — but bookies do. When I look at Internacional vs Fluminense, the numbers scream one thing: a low-scoring affair. Let’s break down the math behind the market. Internacional’s home form tells a story of defensive solidity. Over their last 10 games, they average…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

InternacionalInternacional

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

FluminenseFluminense

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Per game

Internacional at home vs Fluminense away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+154Fluminense
Venue edge
+48Internacional
Rating period
Match snapshot
Internacional versus Fluminense: long term Elo, before the match
InternacionalInternacionalHomeRatingFluminenseFluminenseAway
Strength
1,521Overall1,675
1,550Match venue1,502
1,550At home1,714
1,535Away1,502
Attack & defence
1,469Attack1,554
1,566Defence1,618
1,494Home attack1,559
1,466Away attack1,479
1,582Home defence1,649
1,552Away defence1,549
Match profile
1,158Goal environment1,282
1,448Home goals1,398
1,210Away goals1,383
1,507Possession1,533
Specialist ratings
1,548Set-piece attack1,534
1,547Set-piece defence1,533
1,500Close games1,624
1,522Winning margin1,693

Match venue compares Internacional at home with Fluminense away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

InternacionalInternacionalUnknown

Starting XI

12AnthoniG
15Bruno GomesD
4Félix TorresD
41Victor GabrielD
31AllexM
8Bruno HenriqueM
5Rodrigo VillagraM
26Alexandro BernabeiM
6Matheus BahiaM
7Johan CarboneroF
9AlerrandroF

FluminenseFluminenseUnknown

Starting XI

1FábioG
2Samuel XavierD
3JemmesD
29Julián MillánD
22Juan Pablo FreytesD
13Guilherme AranaD
17Agustín CanobbioM
25AlissonM
5Facundo BernalM
7Yeferson SoteldoM
9John KennedyF