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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Palmeiras vs Bahia

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

7'
PalmeirasJosé Manuel López⚽
Normal Goal → Alexander Barboza
61'
BahiaNicolas Acevedo🟨
Yellow Card
64'
PalmeirasKhellven Douglas Silva Oliveira🟨
Yellow Card
65'
Bahiaerick pulga🔄
Substitution 1 → Ademir
65'
BahiaNicolas Acevedo🔄
Substitution 2 → Caio Alexandre
65'
BahiaRodrigo Nestor🔄
Substitution 3 → Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
69'
PalmeirasVitor Roque🔄
Substitution 1 → Ramon Sosa
69'
PalmeirasJosé Manuel López🔄
Substitution 2 → Jhon Arias
82'
BahiaCristian Olivera🔄
Substitution 4 → Mateo Naín Sanabria
82'
BahiaAlejo Veliz🔄
Substitution 5 → Willian José
87'
BahiaJean Lucas🟨
Yellow Card
87'
PalmeirasAndreas Pereira🔄
Substitution 3 → Felipe Anderson

Match Statistics

302Passes accurate485
15Shots insidebox3
10Shots outsidebox7
3Blocked Shots4
10Free Kicks9
11Shots on Goal1
1Goalkeeper Saves10
11Shots off Goal5
1Offsides1
362Total passes541
25Total Shots10
1Yellow Cards2
7Corner Kicks3
9Fouls12
0Red Cards0
41Ball Possession59

Tipster previews (5)

PajimonPajimon

Palmeiras vs Bahia: The Home Numbers Tell the Story

The pickPalmeiras win

Chance
68%
Odds
1.58
Model EV
+7.4%

Look, I'll be honest with you — when I sit down with a fixture like this, I pour myself a cold one, fire up the braai, and just look at the numbers. And the numbers here are telling me something pretty clear. Palmeiras at home are the real deal. Over 20 home games from 4 March…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

PalmeirasPalmeiras

5W 4D 1L1.90 pts/game

BahiaBahia

4W 5D 1L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Palmeiras at home vs Bahia away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+92Palmeiras
Venue edge
+189Palmeiras
Rating period
Match snapshot
Palmeiras versus Bahia: long term Elo, before the match
PalmeirasPalmeirasHomeRatingBahiaBahiaAway
Strength
1,697Overall1,605
1,696Match venue1,507
1,696At home1,639
1,683Away1,507
Attack & defence
1,560Attack1,554
1,678Defence1,550
1,551Home attack1,551
1,582Away attack1,511
1,670Home defence1,609
1,654Away defence1,496
Match profile
1,518Goal environment1,333
1,595Home goals1,338
1,423Away goals1,495
1,525Possession1,529
Specialist ratings
1,533Set-piece attack1,503
1,533Set-piece defence1,503
1,597Close games1,575
1,734Winning margin1,612

Match venue compares Palmeiras at home with Bahia away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

PalmeirasPalmeiras1:1

Starting XI

1Carlos MiguelG
2A. BarbozaD
56ArthurM
30Lucas EvangelistaM
9Vitor RoqueF
15G. GómezD
17Marlon FreitasM
42J. LópezM
26MuriloD
8Andreas PereiraM
12KhellvenM

BahiaBahia1:1

Starting XI

1RonaldoG
46Luciano JubaD
6Jean LucasM
16Erick PulgaF
4KanuD
5N. AcevedoM
9A. VélizF
33David DuarteD
11Rodrigo NestorM
99C. OliveraF
31Roman GomezD