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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Atletico-MG vs Santos

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time2:1HT 0–0

Match Timeline

8'
SantosWillian Arão🔄
Substitution 1 → Luan Peres
45'
Atletico-MGVictor Hugo Gomes Silva🔄
Substitution 1 → Alan Minda
45'
SantosBenjamín Rollheiser🔄
Substitution 2 → Rony
45+2'
Atletico-MGAlan Franco🟨
Yellow Card
45+4'
SantosLucas Veríssimo🟨
Yellow Card
66'
SantosLuan Peres🟨
Yellow Card
66'
Atletico-MGThiago Borbas🟨
Yellow Card
69'
Atletico-MGAlan Franco🔄
Substitution 2 → Mamady Cisse
69'
Atletico-MGKevin Castaño🔄
Substitution 3 → Maycon de Andrade Barberan
70'
Atletico-MGNatanael Moreira Milouski🔄
Substitution 4 → Angelo Preciado
70'
Atletico-MGIgor Gomes🟨
Yellow Card
72'
SantosGustavo Henrique🔄
Substitution 3 → João Schmidt
72'
SantosGabriel Bontempo🔄
Substitution 4 → Philippe Coutinho
82'
Atletico-MGAlexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa🔄
Substitution 5 → Eduardo Pereira Rodrigues
85'
SantosJoão Schmidt🟨
Yellow Card
85'
SantosEverton🔄
Substitution 5 → Álvaro Barreal
88'
SantosGabriel Barbosa⚽
Normal Goal → Philippe Coutinho
89'
SantosGabriel Barbosa🟨
Yellow Card
89'
SantosWillian Arão🟨
Yellow Card
90+1'
Atletico-MGVitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza⚽
Normal Goal → Maycon de Andrade Barberan
90+7'
Atletico-MGThiago Borbas⚽
Normal Goal → Alan Minda

Match Statistics

1.44expected_goals1.12
484Passes accurate480
18Shots insidebox5
3Shots outsidebox5
4Blocked Shots2
12Free Kicks10
5Shots on Goal3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
12Shots off Goal5
1Offsides3
552Total passes549
21Total Shots10
3Yellow Cards5
12Corner Kicks3
10Fouls12
0Red Cards0
58Ball Possession42

Tipster previews (6)

OracleOracleWon

Atletico-MG vs Santos: The Home Record Speaks Loudest

The pickAtletico-MG win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+12.8%

I have watched football long enough to know that a ground can carry a team's spirit, and at this venue the spirit of Atletico-MG has been unmistakable. On 11 October 2026, they host Santos in Serie A, and the home record is not merely good; it is a statement of authority. Across…

Value VinnyValue Vinny

Atletico-MG vs Santos: The Home Numbers Don't Lie

The pickAtletico-MG win

Chance
53%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+8.6%

Atletico-MG have been solid at home, and the numbers make a clear case. Across their last 20 home games in Serie A, they've collected 14 wins, 5 draws and just 1 loss, averaging 2.35 points per game. They score 1.7 goals per game at home and concede 0.9, with 7 clean sheets in…

PajimonPajimon

Atletico-MG vs Santos: Home Meat at the Braai

The pickAtletico-MG win

Chance
53%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+8.6%

Look, I'll be honest with you — when I see a team sitting on 14 wins from 20 home games, I'm already reaching for the braai tongs. Atletico-MG at home have been absolute meat on the plate this year, scoring 1.7 per game and letting in just 0.9. And Santos? Their away record is 8…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

SantosSantos

6W 2D 2L2.00 pts/game

Per game

Atletico-MG at home vs Santos away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+8Santos
Venue edge
+108Atletico-MG
Rating period
Match snapshot
Atletico-MG versus Santos: long term Elo, before the match
Atletico-MGAtletico-MGHomeRatingSantosSantosAway
Strength
1,602Overall1,610
1,648Match venue1,539
1,648At home1,547
1,484Away1,539
Attack & defence
1,505Attack1,572
1,599Defence1,539
1,565Home attack1,511
1,421Away attack1,536
1,585Home defence1,540
1,575Away defence1,516
Match profile
1,580Goal environment1,297
1,670Home goals1,490
1,410Away goals1,307
1,502Possession1,504
Specialist ratings
1,485Set-piece attack1,487
1,486Set-piece defence1,487
1,562Close games1,568
1,619Winning margin1,623

Match venue compares Atletico-MG at home with Santos away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:1

Starting XI

1Gabriel DelfimG
36Kauã PasciniD
5AlexsanderM
17Igor GomesF
14Vitor HugoD
21Alan FrancoM
18Thiago BorbasF
3Léo DuarteD
15Kevin CastañoM
30Victor HugoF
2NatanaelD

SantosSantos1:1

Starting XI

1DiogenesG
31Gonzalo EscobarD
28Christian OlivaM
7Everton CebolinhaM
9Gabriel BarbosaF
15Willian ArãoD
48GustavinhoM
32Benjamín RollheiserM
4Lucas VeríssimoD
8Gabriel BontempoM
23RodineiD