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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Bahia vs Mirassol

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

11'
BahiaMarcos Victor⚽
Goal cancelled
34'
BahiaCristian Olivera
Penalty confirmed
35'
MirassolChico🟨
Yellow Card
36'
MirassolWalter🟨
Yellow Card
38'
BahiaLuciano Juba
Penalty
46'
MirassolGustavo Silva🔄
Substitution 1 → Shaylon
46'
MirassolAlesson🔄
Substitution 2 → Edson Carioca
46'
MirassolChico🔄
Substitution 3 → Eduardo
59'
BahiaMarcos Victor🔄
Substitution 1 → Román Gómez
59'
BahiaCaio Alexandre🔄
Substitution 2 → Erick
63'
BahiaJean Lucas🟨
Yellow Card
67'
MirassolBruno Santos🔄
Substitution 4 → André Luis
72'
BahiaCristian Olivera🔄
Substitution 3 → Ademir
73'
BahiaRodrigo Nestor🔄
Substitution 4 → Everton Ribeiro
73'
MirassolDenilson🔄
Substitution 5 → Carlos Eduardo
78'
MirassolCarlos Eduardo🟨
Yellow Card
87'
BahiaAlejo Véliz🔄
Substitution 5 → Willian José
90+3'
MirassolNeto Moura🟨
Yellow Card
90+4'
MirassolAndré Luis
Penalty confirmed
90+7'
MirassolReinaldo
Missed Penalty

Match Statistics

3.15expected_goals1.82
456Passes accurate402
12Shots insidebox8
4Shots outsidebox2
2Blocked Shots3
13Free Kicks11
2Shots on Goal2
2Goalkeeper Saves1
12Shots off Goal5
1Offsides1
510Total passes457
16Total Shots10
1Yellow Cards4
6Corner Kicks2
13Fouls16
0Red Cards0
53Ball Possession47

Tipster previews (3)

Mr SimpleMr Simple

Bahia to Take Control at Home Against Mirassol

The pickBahia win

Chance
64%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+8.8%

Right, so we've got Bahia hosting Mirassol at home on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a clear shape to it. Bahia have been in proper form. Four wins from their last five, and the only blemish was that 1–2 slip at Atletico Paranaense three…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

BahiaBahia

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

MirassolMirassol

3W 5D 2L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Bahia at home vs Mirassol away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+25Bahia
Venue edge
+141Bahia
Rating period
Match snapshot
Bahia versus Mirassol: long term Elo, before the match
BahiaBahiaHomeRatingMirassolMirassolAway
Strength
1,594Overall1,569
1,639Match venue1,498
1,639At home1,598
1,501Away1,498
Attack & defence
1,544Attack1,518
1,555Defence1,554
1,551Home attack1,565
1,502Away attack1,471
1,609Home defence1,549
1,503Away defence1,533
Match profile
1,328Goal environment1,538
1,338Home goals1,553
1,490Away goals1,485
1,531Possession1,504
Specialist ratings
1,499Set-piece attack1,491
1,499Set-piece defence1,492
1,561Close games1,547
1,601Winning margin1,576

Match venue compares Bahia at home with Mirassol away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BahiaBahia1:1

Starting XI

1RonaldoG
46Luciano JubaD
11Rodrigo NestorM
16Erick PulgaF
3Marco MorenoD
8Caio AlexandreM
9Alejo VélizF
33David DuarteD
6Jean LucasM
99Cristian OliveraF
44Marcos VictorD

MirassolMirassol1:1

Starting XI

22WalterG
6ReinaldoD
10ChicoM
77AlessonF
3Willian MachadoD
25Neto MouraM
30Bruno SantosF
2Lucas OliveiraD
27DenilsonM
19Gustavo SilvaF
32Igor FormigaD