Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 23:00
Full Time

Match Timeline

9'
P. Goodrum⚽
Normal Goal → Nick Firmino
15'
M. Epps⚽
Normal Goal → Nick Firmino
24'
P. Goodrum⚽
Normal Goal → B. Ferri
35'
Nick Firmino⚽
Normal Goal → M. Fry
38'
M. Bunbury🔄
Substitution 1 → J. J. Carter
39'
T. Espy🟨
Yellow Card
46'
S. Kelly🔄
Substitution 2 → P. Ngoie
49'
P. Goodrum⚽
Normal Goal → M. Epps
53'
J. Greene🟨
Yellow Card
55'
M. Fry🔄
Substitution 1 → T. Scott
55'
Nick Firmino🔄
Substitution 2 → B. P. Rodrigues
61'
T. Scott
Missed Penalty → T. Scott
64'
O. Sylla🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Palomino
66'
N. Okello🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Tschantret
66'
J. Greene🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Muir
72'
M. Epps🔄
Substitution 5 → M. Yosef
83'
S. Wathuta🔄
Substitution 4 → M. War
85'
M. Tschantret⚽
Normal Goal

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Lexington
Lexington
Form: W-L-L-L-W
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
Form: L-D-D-L-L
Record
4 W
2 D
4 L
•
2 W
3 D
5 L
Goals Per Game
1.4
Scored
vs
1.1
Scored
1.0
Conceded
vs
2.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
BTTS
40%
BTTS
60%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.4
Away:1.4
Conceded
Home:0.6
Away:1.4
Scored
Home:0.9
Away:1.7
Conceded
Home:2.4
Away:1.3

ELO comparison

Pre-match ratings

Rating period
Match snapshot
Lexington versus Orange County SC: long term ELO, before the match
LexingtonHomeRatingOrange County SCAway
Strength
1,515.2Overall1,551.1
1,550.3Match venue1,533.8
1,550.3At home1,565
1,459.9Away1,533.8
Attack & defence
1,503.6Attack1,508.7
1,531.7Defence1,518.5
1,520.3Home attack1,490.1
1,462.6Away attack1,506.1
1,550.9Home defence1,546.7
1,500.4Away defence1,521.6
Match profile
1,520Goal environment1,735
1,505Home goals1,590
1,515Away goals1,645
1,500Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,500Set-piece attack1,500
1,500Set-piece defence1,500
1,464.1Close games1,554.2
1,537.3Winning margin1,540.4

Match venue compares Lexington at home with Orange County SC away. All ratings are within this league.

Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.

📝 Match Preview

The Big O's Goal Gala: Lexington vs Orange County SC
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.70
Expected Value:+27.5%
Confidence:8

Listen up, football fans! If you’re looking for a snooze-fest where both teams sit on their hands and pray for a 0-0 draw, you’ve come to the wrong place. Life’s too short for nil-nil, and this fixture is practically begging for some high-octane, goal-filled drama. I’m The Big "O," and my specialty is finding the action, and right now, Orange County SC is serving up a buffet of opportunities for goal-seekers. Let’s look at the facts, because the numbers don't lie. Orange County SC’s defense is currently looking like a sieve. They have conceded a staggering 2.10 goals per game over their last 10 matches. To put that into perspective, they have a clean sheet rate of a measly 10%. They aren't just losing; they are being dismantled. We saw them concede 5 goals to FC Tulsa and 3 to the Tampa Bay Rowdies recently. When a team is this leaky, you don't bet against the goals—you ride the wave of the carnage. On the other side of the pitch, Lexington is ready to host a party at home. While they are significantly more disciplined defensively at home (conceding only 0.60 goals per game), they have shown they can find the back of the net with authority. Their recent 4-1 demolition of Oakland Roots is a perfect example of what they can do when they get into a rhythm. When you mix Orange County's offensive output on the road—where they average 1.67 goals per game—with their defensive catastrophe, the math starts to get very exciting. We aren't just looking at a standard match; we are looking at a scenario where the 'Over' market is the only logical place to be. The goal expectancy here is primed for a multi-goal thriller. History shows these two have shared some balanced draws in the past, including a 2-2 and a 1-1, but the current form of Orange County suggests they are far more likely to let goals fly than to keep a tight ship. I’m looking for plenty of action here, and I expect the scoreboard to be busy. Let's get those goals!

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