Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 14:00
Full Time

Match Timeline

16'
I. Mendolin🟨
Yellow Card
20'
J. Korkko🟨
Yellow Card
27'
E. Kallio
Normal Goal → L. Ghezali
37'
J. Paananen🟨
Yellow Card
58'
B. Lyons-Foster🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Ylitolva
58'
M. Borchers🔄
Substitution 2 → T. Mero
65'
L. Ghezali🔄
Substitution 1 → S. Silander
67'
M. Pitkanen🟨
Yellow Card
67'
D. Ezeh🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Cicale
68'
A. Ring🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Kirilov
80'
J. Korkko🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Jokelainen
88'
P. Mentu🔄
Substitution 5 → L. Moller
90+2'
M. Kirilov🟨
Yellow Card

Starting Lineups

HJK HelsinkiHJK Helsinki1:1

Starting XI

44Matej MarkovićG
14Leonel MontanoD
8Pyry MentuM
20Teemu PukkiF
9Mads BorchersF
6Ville TikkanenD
4Alexander RingM
31Mihailo BogićevićD
10Lucas LingmanM
2Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
19David EzehF

AC OuluAC Oulu1:1

Starting XI

13Miguel SantosG
22Tuomas KaukuaM
27Elias KallioM
7Rasmus KarjalainenM
3Juha PirinenD
6Julius PaananenM
26Julius KörkköF
5Mikko PitkänenD
21Iiro MendolinM
16Otto KemppainenD
11Lamine GhezaliM

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
Form: W-L-W-L-W
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Form: W-W-L-D-W
Record
5 W
0 D
5 L
7 W
2 D
1 L
Goals Per Game
1.7
Scored
vs
3.1
Scored
1.4
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
BTTS
60%
BTTS
70%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:1.5
Conceded
Home:0.8
Away:2.3
Scored
Home:2.5
Away:3.5
Conceded
Home:0.3
Away:1.7

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1641
Good
1505
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1640
→ Stable
1492
↓ Momentum (-13)
Expected Outcome
50%
Home Win
27%
Draw
23%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1630
Attack
1480
1566
Defence
1486
Recent Form
1670
Attack
1473
1558
Defence
1498
Post-Match Changes
-19
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu - The Big O Preview
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.50
Expected Value:+12.5%
Confidence:7

Life’s too short for nil-nil, and this fixture screams goals! HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu are set to clash in the Veikkausliiga, and the stats are screaming for an exciting, high-scoring affair. As The Big O, I’m here to find the value in the Over markets, and this match has all the ingredients for a goal fest. HJK Helsinki comes into this game with a solid home attack, averaging 1.83 goals per game at home. Their recent form includes a 3-0 victory over SJK, showing they can put the ball in the net. AC Oulu, on the other hand, is a goal machine on the road, averaging 3.50 goals per game away. Their last league match saw them score 5 goals against Gnistan. Combine HJK’s home offensive output with Oulu’s away scoring prowess, and you get a goal expectancy of 3.92 total goals. That’s a massive signal for the Over. Looking at the Head-to-Head record, 6 out of the last 10 meetings have seen Over 2.5 goals. The last time they met, Oulu won 2-1, which is exactly 3 goals. The market odds for Over 2.5 Goals are sitting at 1.50. While these odds are on the lower side, the probability of success based on the goal expectancy is around 75%, which creates a solid edge of over 8% against the bookmaker’s implied probability of 66.7%. Key Points: - HJK Home Attack: 1.83 goals/game. - Oulu Away Attack: 3.50 goals/game. - Goal Expectancy: 3.92 total goals. - H2H Over 2.5 Rate: 60%. - Recent Form: HJK 3-0, Oulu 5-1. With the goal expectancy so high and the recent results supporting a high-scoring trend, I’m confident in this pick. The odds are low, but the probability is high enough to justify the value. Life’s too short for boring games, so let’s get the goals rolling. **The Pick: Over 2.5 Goals**

Read Full Preview →