Sat, 11 Apr 2026, 07:00
Full Time

Match Timeline

12'
Alex Souza
Normal Goal → Fuchi Honda
13'
Alex Souza🟨
Yellow Card
31'
Takaya Kimura
Normal Goal → Ataru Esaka
45+5'
Kyo Sato
Normal Goal → João Pedro
45+8'
João Pedro
Normal Goal
56'
Yoshinori Suzuki
Normal Goal → Fuchi Honda
61'
Masaya Matsumoto🔄
Substitution 1 → Werik Popó
61'
Yuta Kamiya🔄
Substitution 2 → Kosei Ogura
64'
Sung-jun Yoon🟨
Yellow Card
70'
Fuchi Honda🔄
Substitution 1 → Masaya Okugawa
71'
Lucão🔄
Substitution 3 → Kazunari Ichimi
71'
Takaya Kimura🔄
Substitution 4 → Noah Kenshin Browne
77'
Taiki Hirato🔄
Substitution 2 → Ryuma Nakano
77'
Sung-jun Yoon🔄
Substitution 3 → Shogo Asada
77'
Ataru Esaka🔄
Substitution 5 → Kota Kawano
85'
Shogo Asada🟨
Yellow Card
87'
Marco Túlio🔄
Substitution 4 → David
88'
Alex Souza🔄
Substitution 5 → Takuji Yonemoto
90+1'
João Pedro
Normal Goal → Henrique Trevisan

Match Statistics

10Shots on Goal1
3Shots off Goal12
17Total Shots13
4Blocked Shots0
14Shots insidebox12
3Shots outsidebox1
8Fouls11
6Corner Kicks11
2Offsides2
58Ball Possession42
3Yellow Cards0
0Goalkeeper Saves5
333Total passes231
230Passes accurate146
69Passes %63

Starting Lineups

Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1:1

Starting XI

1Gakuji OtaG
44Kyo SatoD
39Taiki HiratoM
99Fuchi HondaF
34Henrique TrevisanD
25Sung-jun YoonM
11Marco TúlioF
50Yoshinori SuzukiD
6João PedroM
17Alex SouzaF
2Shinnosuke FukudaD

Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1:1

Starting XI

52Taro HamadaG
4Kaito AbeD
51Kosuke ShiraiM
8Ataru EsakaF
99LucãoF
18Daichi TagamiD
33Yuta KamiyaM
27Takaya KimuraF
48Yugo TatsutaD
41Eiji MiyamotoM
28Masaya MatsumotoM

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
Form: L-D-W-L-L
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Form: L-L-W-D-W
Record
3 W
3 D
4 L
2 W
4 D
4 L
Goals Per Game
1.1
Scored
vs
0.9
Scored
1.2
Conceded
vs
1.3
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
BTTS
70%
BTTS
70%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.3
Away:1.0
Conceded
Home:1.0
Away:1.3
Scored
Home:0.8
Away:1.0
Conceded
Home:1.6
Away:1.0

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1544
Average
1466
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1567
↑ Momentum (+22)
1413
↓ Momentum (-53)
Expected Outcome
42%
Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1502
Attack
1422
1579
Defence
1545
Recent Form
1508
Attack
1371
1574
Defence
1527
Post-Match Changes
+11
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama - Underdog Value Pick
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:1.80
Expected Value:+26.0%
Confidence:7

Welcome to the J1 League clash between Kyoto Sanga and Fagiano Okayama! As Umery Underdog, I'm always on the lookout for the little puppies who can steal the show. While Kyoto Sanga is the favorite at home, the data reveals a hidden opportunity in the scoring markets. The recent head-to-head history is particularly interesting. On March 8th, Fagiano Okayama traveled to Kyoto and secured a 1-0 victory. This is a massive signal for the underdog. Kyoto Sanga's home record against Okayama has historically been strong, but this recent upset shows Okayama can win at their place. Looking at the goal statistics, both teams have a 70% rate for Both Teams To Score in their last 10 games. Kyoto Sanga averages 1.25 goals scored per game at home, while conceding 1.00. Fagiano Okayama averages 1.00 goals scored per game away, also conceding 1.00. The goal expectancy inputs suggest a total of 2.12 goals (1.12 home + 1.00 away), which aligns with the BTTS probability. The bookmakers have set the odds for Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.80. This implies a 55.5% probability. However, the team stats suggest a true probability of 70%. This creates a value edge of approximately 14.5%, which is well above the 6% threshold required for a profitable bet. Kyoto Sanga's defense concedes regularly, and Okayama has proven they can score at this venue. The shots on target data also supports this, with Sanga averaging 4.11 and Okayama 3.78 on target per game. The recent form shows Okayama is capable of breaking the deadlock. Given the strong statistical edge and the recent head-to-head result, I'm confident the little puppies will score. This is a classic underdog value pick where the market underestimates Okayama's ability to find the net. Key Points: - Fagiano Okayama recently defeated Kyoto Sanga 1-0 at Sanga's home ground. - Both teams have a 70% Both Teams To Score rate in their last 10 games. - Odds of 1.80 imply 55.5% chance, but data suggests 70% chance (14.5% edge). - Kyoto Sanga concedes 1.00 goals per game at home. - Fagiano Okayama scores 1.00 goals per game away. Final Verdict: Both Teams To Score - Yes.

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