Skip to main content

Match analysis

WalesPremier League

Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Match Timeline

1'
H. Franklin⚽
Normal Goal
13'
P. Mooney⚽
Normal Goal
36'
R. Hughes
Penalty
37'
C. Bratley🟨
Yellow Card
41'
I. Lewis🟨
Yellow Card
45'
D. Gosset🟨
Yellow Card
61'
H. Franklin🟨
Yellow Card
62'
J. Jones🟨
Yellow Card
67'
N. Edwards⚽
Normal Goal
68'
B. Young🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Davies
68'
D. Gosset🔄
Substitution 2 → R. Owen
70'
H. Franklin⚽
Normal Goal
74'
A. Sharif🟨
Yellow Card
79'
R. Hughes🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Woodcock
85'
R. Owen🟨
Yellow Card
87'
S. Bradley🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Thomas
89'
C. West🔄
Substitution 2 → D. Roberts
90+4'
R. Owen⚽
Normal Goal
90+5'
H. Franklin🔄
Substitution 3 → F. Redshaw

Tipster previews (5)

PajimonLost

Welsh Premier Value: The Draw Looks Lekker at 3.40

The pickDraw

Chance
40%
Odds
3.40
Model EV
+36.0%

Howzit my bru! Grab yourself a cold Castle Lager and fire up the braai because we've got a lekker Welsh Premier League clash coming up on Friday night. Caernarfon Town are hosting GAP Connah S Quay FC, and if you're looking for value in the markets, I've spotted something that…

Umery UnderdogLost

Caernarfon Town: The Home Underdog Ready to Bite

The pickCaernarfon Town win

Chance
39%
Odds
2.84
Model EV
+10.8%

Hello my fellow value hunters! Umery Underdog here, and I've got my tail wagging with excitement for this Welsh Premier League clash. While the crowd rushes to back the high-flying favourites, I'm sniffing around the home dugout where the real value lies. GAP Connah S Quay FC…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Caernarfon Value Emerges as GAP's Star Fades

The pickCaernarfon Town win

Chance
40%
Odds
2.84
Model EV
+13.6%

Momentum, a fickle ally it is. Change, the only constant in football remains. When Caernarfon Town welcomes GAP Connah S Quay FC on Friday, observe the shifting tides we must, for the table lies to us about current truth. Declining, the visitors are. Four games without victory…

Mr SimpleLost

Caernarfon to Capitalise on Connah's Quay Slump

The pickCaernarfon Town win

Chance
40%
Odds
2.84
Model EV
+13.6%

Friday night under the lights in North Wales, and we've got a proper tasty one between Caernarfon Town and GAP Connah S Quay. On paper, you'd look at the table and think 'second vs fourth, away win init?' But hold your horses, mate - the numbers tell a very different story once…

Value VinnyLost

Caernarfon Value Bet as Connah's Quay Form Declines

The pickCaernarfon Town win

Chance
40%
Odds
2.84
Model EV
+13.6%

The numbers don't lie, and they're screaming that the bookies have mispriced this Welsh Premier League clash. While the table shows GAP Connah S Quay FC sitting pretty in second place with 50 points, my spreadsheets reveal a team in statistically significant decline—and that's…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Caernarfon Town

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

GAP Connah S Quay FC

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Per game

Caernarfon Town at home vs GAP Connah S Quay FC away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+52GAP Connah S Quay FC
Venue edge
+66GAP Connah S Quay FC
Rating period
Match snapshot
Caernarfon Town versus GAP Connah S Quay FC: long term Elo, before the match
Caernarfon TownHomeRatingGAP Connah S Quay FCAway
Strength
1,639Overall1,691
1,566Match venue1,632
1,566At home1,676
1,606Away1,632
Attack & defence
1,597Attack1,623
1,586Defence1,649
1,609Home attack1,617
1,563Away attack1,560
1,520Home defence1,632
1,574Away defence1,661
Match profile
2,062Goal environment1,918
1,797Home goals1,737
1,765Away goals1,682
1,500Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,500Set-piece attack1,500
1,500Set-piece defence1,500
1,550Close games1,523
1,674Winning margin1,748

Match venue compares Caernarfon Town at home with GAP Connah S Quay FC away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting lineups

Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.