Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 05:00
Full Time (Penalties)

Match Timeline

61'
K. Shimabuku🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Moraes
63'
S. Terasaka🟨
Yellow Card
70'
K. Kasai🔄
Substitution 2 → Y. Wakatsuki
76'
Y. Onishi🟨
Yellow Card
76'
T. Osawa🔄
Substitution 1 → T. Kato
86'
S. Shimada🔄
Substitution 2 → K. Shirawachi
86'
Y. Shinomiya🔄
Substitution 3 → Y. Nagamine
86'
K. Buwanika🔄
Substitution 4 → K. Sugiura
88'
J. Okumura🔄
Substitution 3 → R. Ochiai
120+1'
M. Moraes
Penalty
120+1'
K. Shirawachi
Missed Penalty
120+2'
S. Fujiwara
Penalty
120+2'
N. Yamamoto
Missed Penalty
120+3'
Y. Wakatsuki
Penalty
120+3'
K. Sugiura
Penalty
120+4'
M. Fitzgerald
Penalty

Starting Lineups

Albirex NiigataAlbirex NiigataUnknown

Starting XI

64N. BaumannUnknown
25S. FujiwaraUnknown
5M. FitzgeraldUnknown
77K. FunakiUnknown
26M. SatoUnknown
30J. OkumuraUnknown
7Y. OnishiUnknown
8E. ShiraiUnknown
17K. ShimabukuUnknown
46K. KasaiUnknown
99Y. OnoUnknown

KanazawaKanazawaUnknown

Starting XI

1Y. ShiraiUnknown
38N. YamamotoUnknown
19S. TerasakaUnknown
20H. NagakuraUnknown
25M. KojimaUnknown
15Y. NishiyaUnknown
26J. MurataUnknown
23Y. ShinomiyaUnknown
41S. ShimadaUnknown
18T. OsawaUnknown
9K. BuwanikaUnknown

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
Form: D-L-D-D-W
Kanazawa
Kanazawa
Form: L-D-W-L-W
Record
3 W
4 D
3 L
3 W
3 D
4 L
Goals Per Game
1.2
Scored
vs
0.9
Scored
1.3
Conceded
vs
1.5
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
BTTS
40%
BTTS
30%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.7
Away:1.0
Conceded
Home:2.7
Away:0.7
Scored
Home:0.3
Away:1.1
Conceded
Home:1.3
Away:1.6

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1598
Average
1431
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1626
↑ Momentum (+28)
1410
↓ Momentum (-21)
Expected Outcome
53%
Home Win
27%
Draw
20%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1576
Attack
1414
1607
Defence
1455
Recent Form
1614
Attack
1368
1602
Defence
1449
Post-Match Changes
-7
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

Albirex Niigata vs Kanazawa - The Big O's Goal Feast
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.93
Expected Value:+31.2%
Confidence:8

Life’s too short for nil-nils, and that’s exactly why I’m here to bring you the action. Welcome to another J2/J3 League clash, and today The Big O is looking for goals, not boring defensive masterclasses. We’ve got Albirex Niigata hosting Kanazawa, and the numbers are screaming for a high-scoring affair. Let’s dive into the goal expectancy. The Poisson inputs suggest a total of 3.52 goals for this match (Albirex 1.62 + Kanazawa 1.90). That’s a solid baseline for an Over 2.5 Goals bet. When you look at the head-to-head record, 6 out of the last 10 meetings finished with Over 2.5 Goals. That’s a 60% strike rate, which is music to my ears. Albirex Niigata at home is a goal factory. In their last 3 home games, they’ve averaged 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 goals conceded. That’s a combined 4.34 goals per game at home. Kanazawa on the road isn’t exactly a fortress either; they’ve averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 goals conceded in their last 7 away games. When you stack these stats, the stage is set for fireworks. The betting market is offering 1.93 for Over 2.5 Goals. The implied probability is around 51.8%, but based on the goal expectancy of 3.52, the true probability of seeing three or more goals is roughly 68%. That gives us a significant edge, well above the 6% threshold I require for value. The Big O loves an edge, and this one is juicy. Recent form also backs this up. Albirex has been involved in games with plenty of action, and Kanazawa’s away form shows they concede regularly. With the H2H history showing a 60% Over 2.5 rate and the current goal expectancy pointing to 3.52, I’m not holding back. I want the goals. I want the action. I want the Over. So, here’s the call. We’re going for the goals. The Big O is confident that this match will exceed the 2.5 goal mark. Don’t let the nil-nils steal your fun. Bet the Over 2.5 Goals.

Read Full Preview →