Right, so we've got Sichuan Jiuniu hosting Henan Jianye on 9 October, and if you've been following Henan's recent form, you'll know they've been in a bit of a weird little rut. Four draws in a row. Four. That's a hell of a run, and it's got me scratching my head a bit. Let's start with the obvious: Henan Jianye have drawn their last four games — 1–1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0–0 against Chengdu Better City, 1–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and that wild 4–4 at Shenyang Urban. Six goals scored, six conceded. They're not winning, but they're not losing either. That's a team that's found a rhythm, even if it's a boring one. Sichuan Jiuniu, for their part, have drawn their last game — 1–1 at Shandong Luneng — and their last five has been a bit of a mixed bag: one win, two draws, two losses. They beat Shenyang Urban 2–1 away in August, but they've also lost 0–1 at home to Shanghai SIPG and 0–4 to Beijing Guoan. So they're not exactly flying at the moment. Now, the head-to-head here is a bit thin on the recent stuff. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in May at Henan's ground, and Henan won 1–0. There's no recent meeting at Sichuan's ground. Going further back — and I'll be clear, this is historical record, not current form — Henan won 1–3 at Sichuan's ground in 2025, and the other meeting at this venue was a 0–0 draw. So Henan haven't lost here in the older meetings, but that's a couple of years ago. The venue samples tell a decent story. Over 20 home games, Sichuan Jiuniu have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, scoring 1.8 per game. Henan Jianye over 20 away games have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.35 per game. So Sichuan are the stronger side at home on the numbers, but Henan's away record is respectable, and those six draws in 20 away games say something about their consistency on the road. The counter-argument is this: Henan have the edge in the head-to-head and their recent consistency is remarkable, but a four-draw run is about to end at some point. They've scored 1.6 per game over their last ten, and they've had both teams score in 8 of those 10. The 4–4 at Shenyang Urban showed they can put goals on the board. If Henan break the pattern, they're more likely to win than to draw, given the edge they've got in the H2H and their away record. But here's the thing — both teams are in a low-scoring, draw-heavy phase. Sichuan's last five has three games under 2.5 goals, and Henan's last five has three as well. The scores have been 1–1, 0–0, 0–1, 1–1, 1–1. That's a lot of tight, cagey football. And the head-to-head has three draws in seven meetings. When two teams are both in a drawy spell and the scores are coming in low, the draw starts to look a lot more likely than the market is giving it credit for. The bookies have the draw at 3.7, which implies about 27% chance. I'd put it closer to 30 or 31% given the run, the low scoring, and the H2H history. That's a small but real edge. Key Points: - Henan Jianye have drawn their last four games (scored 6, conceded 6) - Both teams have been under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches - The only recent head-to-head meeting (May 2026) ended 1–0 to Henan; the H2H has 3 draws in 7 meetings - Sichuan Jiuniu's home record: 9W 3D 8L in 20 games; Henan's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games - Both teams' latest 10 games show high draw rates: Henan 7 draws, Sichuan 3 draws My pick: the draw.

Right, so we've got Sichuan Jiuniu hosting Henan Jianye on 9 October in the Super League, and I'm telling you, this one's got a flavour I can get behind — like a good braai on an evening, the kind where the meat actually shows up and you don't have to settle for vegetables. Henan Jianye are the stronger side here, and the numbers back it up. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've picked up 1.3 points per game compared to Sichuan Jiuniu's 1.2, and they've scored 1.6 per game to Sichuan's 1.3. More importantly, Henan's away record over 20 games tells the story: 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, with 1.35 points per game. They've only dropped one point in their last five matches — well, actually they've dropped zero points in the last four, drawing 1-1 at Wuhan Three Towns, 0-0 at home to Chengdu Better City, 1-1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and 4-4 at Shenyang Urban. That's a team that's not losing, even if the wins aren't coming yet. The head-to-head adds weight. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in May at Henan's ground, and Henan took it 1-0. There's no recent meeting at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground, so we're looking at older fixtures for that venue — a 1-3 Henan win and a 0-0 draw — which are historical record, not current form. The recent H2H says Henan have the edge in this fixture. Now the counter-argument, and I'll be honest: Henan's four-draw run is a bit of a concern. They haven't won in four games, and that 4-4 draw at Shenyang Urban, while a draw, shows they're conceding freely. Sichuan Jiuniu at home over 20 games have 9 wins and 1.8 goals per game, so they're not a team to write off on their own patch. Their last two home games, though, were a 0-1 loss to Shanghai SIPG on 28 August and a 1-1 draw with Hangzhou Greentown on 22 August, so the home form isn't exactly firing. And that 0-4 loss to Beijing Guoan two months ago shows they can get torn apart on the road, but at home they've got a record of 9 wins in 20 that you can't ignore. The BTTS angle is interesting too. Henan have both teams scoring in 8 of their last 10, and Sichuan at home have seen both teams score in 12 of 20. The market prices both teams to score at 1.53, which I think is fair, but the main game is what matters here. My read: Henan Jianye are the better team, they've only lost once in five, and the market has them at 44.64% for the win. I'd put their chances closer to 48%, which gives a small but real edge. The draw is a live possibility given that run, but the form edge and the H2H say Henan get the job done. Key Points: - Henan Jianye have lost only once in their last five matches, drawing the last four - Henan's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.35 points per game - The only recent H2H meeting (15 May 2026) was a 1-0 Henan win - Sichuan Jiuniu's last two home games: 0-1 loss and 1-1 draw - Henan's BTTS rate in last 10: 8 of 10 yes Verdict: I'm going with the away win for Henan Jianye.

There's something quietly special about this fixture, and it's not the kind of thing the bookmakers are pricing in. Henan Jianye have drawn their last four matches — a run that stretches back to 23 August and includes a 0–0 at home to Chengdu Better City on 6 September, a 1–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long on 29 August, a wild 4–4 at Shenyang Urban on 23 August, and a 1–1 at Wuhan Three Towns on 12 September. Four draws in a row, with six goals scored and six conceded across the stretch. That is a team that keeps finding a way to level things out, and it is the single most striking form signal in this fixture. Sichuan Jiuniu, hosting here, have also been drawing. Their last two home games before this one — a 0–1 loss to Shanghai SIPG on 28 August and a 1–1 with Hangzhou Greentown on 22 August — show a side that is not winning easily at home. In their last five matches across all venues, they have managed just one win, two draws and two losses, scoring only four goals and conceding eight. Their home record over 20 games is 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses, which is respectable, but the recent numbers tell a story of a team that is not clicking. They scored 1.8 per game at home over that 20-game sample, but in their last five matches they have averaged just 0.8 per game. The head-to-head adds another layer. Of the seven recorded meetings between these two sides, three have ended in a draw, including a 0–0 at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground back in July 2024. The one meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–0 Henan Jianye win at their own ground in May 2026, so the recent head-to-head is thin and the older meetings are historical record rather than current form. But the pattern of low-scoring, level results between these two is hard to ignore. Now, the honest counter-argument. Henan Jianye's four-draw run is a run, not a guarantee. They lost 1–4 to Shanghai Shenhua on 15 August, which was their only defeat in the last five, and that 4–4 draw at Shenyang shows they can be involved in open games. Sichuan Jiuniu, at home, have won 9 of their last 20 league matches, and the market prices them at 32.57% to take the points. The draw at 3.7 (27.03% implied) is the least likely outcome on the board, and runs do end. I'm not pretending this is a lock — it's a value pick built on a pattern, not a certainty. Key Points: - Henan Jianye have drawn their last four matches, scoring 6 and conceding 6 across the run. - Sichuan Jiuniu have drawn one of their last two home games and scored just 4 goals in their last five matches. - Three of the seven recorded head-to-head meetings between these sides have ended in a draw. - Both teams' latest 10-game samples show high draw rates: Henan Jianye 7 draws in 10, Sichuan Jiuniu 3 draws in 10. - The market prices the draw at 27.03%, which I believe underestimates the likelihood given the current form on both sides. My verdict: I'm backing the draw at 3.7. The little puppies are drawing it in, and I'm here for that.

May the form be with you, friend. And in this case, the form points to the visitors. Henan Jianye arrive at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground carrying the weight of a team that simply does not lose easily. Their last four matches have been draws — a 1–1 at Wuhan Three Towns, a 0–0 against Chengdu Better City, a 1–1 with Chongqing Tongliang Long, and a 4–4 thriller at Shenyang Urban. Four draws in a row, six goals scored, six conceded. It is a pattern that says, 'we will not fall, but we will not rise either.' Yet beneath that quiet consistency, their away record over 20 games tells a different story: 7 wins, 6 draws, 7 losses, 1.35 points per game, and 1.35 goals scored per outing. They are a team that travels well, and the numbers do not lie about it. Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have been searching for their footing. Their last five matches: a 1–1 draw at Shandong Luneng, a 0–1 defeat to Shanghai SIPG at home, a 1–1 draw with Hangzhou Greentown at home, a 2–1 win at Shenyang Urban, and a 0–4 thrashing by Beijing Guoan. One win, two draws, two losses. At home over 20 games they are a solid side — 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses, 1.8 goals scored per game — but the last two months have not been kind. They have failed to score in two of their last five matches and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. A team that scores 0.8 per game in its recent outings is a team that struggles to find the back of the net. The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There has been no recent meeting at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Henan Jianye's ground in May 2026, where Henan won 1–0. Older meetings at this venue — a 1–3 Henan win in 2025 and a 0–0 draw in 2024 — are historical record, not current form. So we lean on what is fresh: Henan's away numbers and Sichuan's recent struggles to find goals. Now, the wise one must also see the other side. Henan's four-draw run is real. In their latest 10 matches, they have won only twice and drawn seven. That is a team that settles into a stalemate. And Sichuan at home, over 20 games, have won 9 of them. The draw at 3.7 is not without merit. But a draw is not a win, and the question is who breaks the deadlock. Henan's record on the road, combined with Sichuan's inability to find goals in recent weeks, tips the balance toward the visitors. I see Henan winning this one, and my estimate of roughly 48 percent sits above the market's 44.64 percent for the away win. The price at 2.24 offers value for the patient bettor who trusts the numbers. Key Points: - Henan Jianye's away record over 20 games: 7W 6D 7L, 1.35 points per game - Sichuan Jiuniu's last 5 matches: 1W 2D 2L, 0.8 goals scored per game - Henan Jianye have drawn their last 4 matches (scored 6, conceded 6) - Only one recent H2H meeting (May 2026): Henan won 1–0 at their ground - Both teams' latest 10 games show 4/10 over 2.5 goals — a low-scoring fixture is likely The force is with the visitors. I recommend the away win for Henan Jianye.