Look, I'll be honest with you – this one's got the smell of a good braai on it. Ajax are cooking up a storm at home, and NEC Nijmegen are coming in looking like they've been left out in the rain. Ajax have won three of their last five, drawing one and losing one, and the numbers don't lie: 17 goals scored, only 7 conceded. That's 3.4 a game on the attack, and every single one of those five matches went over 2.5 goals. At home over 20 games, they've won 10, drawn 6, lost 4, and they're averaging 2.15 goals per game. The 5–1 hammering of Willem II on 15 September and the 5–1 away at Fortuna Sittard on 12 September showed just how much fire they've got. Yes, they dropped points to PSV on 5 September and drew 2–2 with Excelsior on 19 September, but the overall picture is a side that scores and scores and scores. Over their last 10 across all grounds, they've won 6, drawn 3, lost 1, and scored 3.2 per game. Now look at NEC Nijmegen. Zero wins in their last five. Two draws, three losses. They've scored 4 goals and conceded 14 – that's 2.8 a game leaking out the back. The 0–5 loss to Juventus in the Europa League on 17 September and the 0–3 at Cambuur on 12 September were ugly. Their away record over 20 games is 8W 6D 6L, which isn't terrible, but their last 10 across all grounds is 2W 3D 5L with 2.3 goals conceded per game. They've failed to score in two of their last five. The head-to-head over the last 12 months is interesting: both meetings were draws – 1–1 at Ajax's ground on 21 February and 2–2 at NEC's ground on 20 December. So there's a pattern of these two cancelling each other out. But that's just two games. The full 19-meeting record has Ajax winning 12, drawing 6, losing 1, and the dates stretch back 14 years so the older games dilute the current picture. The counter-argument is real: those two recent H2H draws were low-scoring, and NEC did manage to score in both. Ajax's last home game was a 2–2 draw with Excelsior, so they're not impervious. But the sheer volume of goals Ajax are producing – 3.2 per game over their last 10, 3.4 in the last 5 – against a side that's conceding nearly 3 a game, makes it hard to see this staying under 2.5. Both teams' home and away records show 14 of 20 games finishing over 2.5 goals, and Ajax have gone over 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches. Key Points: - Ajax have scored in all 5 of their last 5 games, averaging 3.4 per game - NEC Nijmegen have conceded 14 goals in their last 5 (2.8 per game) - Both teams' home/away records show 14 of 20 games over 2.5 goals - Recent H2H meetings were both draws (1–1, 2–2), but the broader record favours Ajax - NEC failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches My pick: over 2.5 goals at 1.34. The goal output is too hot to ignore, and I rate this outcome at around 77%, which sits just above the market's 74.63% implied probability. Boet, this is where the meat is.

The numbers don't lie, and in this one they're screaming. Ajax come into this Eredivisie fixture at home with a last five of 3W 1D 1L, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 7. Their last 10 across all venues tells the same story: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss, with 3.2 goals per game coming in. At home over 20 games, Ajax have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 4, averaging 2.15 goals a game while keeping the opposition to 1.3. They've scored in all five of their most recent matches, and every single one of those five has finished with three or more goals on the board. NEC Nijmegen, by contrast, are struggling. Their last five reads 0W 2D 3L, with 4 goals scored and 14 conceded. That's 0.8 a game in and 2.8 a game out. Over their last 10, they've managed 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, conceding 2.3 per game. Away from home over 20 games, their record is 8W 6D 6L, but the recent away form is grim: a 0–5 defeat to Juventus in the Europa League on 17 September and a 0–3 loss to Cambuur on 12 September. They've failed to score in two of their last five matches and haven't kept a clean sheet in any of them. The head-to-head adds a wrinkle. The two most recent meetings, both within the last 12 months, were draws: 1–1 at Ajax's ground in February 2026 and 2–2 at NEC's ground in December 2025. That's a pattern worth noting, but it's only two games. The broader head-to-head across 19 meetings spanning 14 years shows Ajax winning 12, drawing 6 and losing just once, with 50 goals scored and 19 conceded. The older meetings — including a 0–3 NEC win at Ajax in May 2025 — are historical record and don't reflect current form. Here's the counter-argument I have to respect: those two recent draws mean this fixture has a habit of producing level scores, and Ajax's home form in the last five has been 1W 1D 1L, including a 1–3 loss to PSV on 5 September. NEC did score in three of their last five, and the BTTS record at both venues is 15 out of 20 for each side. So this isn't a one-sided affair on paper. But when I look at the goal data, the picture is clear. Ajax have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, 9 of their last 10, and 14 of their 20 home games. NEC have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, 8 of their last 10, and 14 of their 20 away games. The head-to-head overall is 14 of 19 over 2.5. Ajax are scoring at 3.4 per game in their last five; NEC are conceding at 2.8 per game. Even if NEC's attack stays quiet at 0.8 a game, the total is still likely to clear three. Key Points: - Ajax have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and gone over 2.5 in every one of them. - NEC Nijmegen have won just 2 of their last 10 and conceded 2.3 per game. - The two most recent H2H meetings were draws (1–1 and 2–2), but the 19-game head-to-head is heavily Ajax's. - Both teams' venue records show 14 of 20 games finishing over 2.5 goals. - NEC have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and kept zero clean sheets in that span. The market prices over 2.5 goals at 1.34, implying a 74.63% chance. My read of the goal data puts the probability higher than that — the scoring at both ends of this fixture is too hot to ignore. I'm backing over 2.5 goals.

Right, let's have a chat about this one. Ajax are at home to NEC Nijmegen on 10 October, and if you've been following the form books, this looks like a goal-fest. Ajax have been in proper form. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, but the numbers that really grab you are the goals. They've scored 17 in those five games — that's 3.4 a pop. The 5–1 hammering of Willem II at home, the 5–1 away at Fortuna Sittard, the 4–0 at Telstar — this lot are scoring in buckets. Even the 2–2 draw with Excelsior and the 1–3 loss to PSV had plenty of goals on the board. All five of those games went over 2.5. Now look at NEC Nijmegen. Zero wins in their last five. Two draws, three losses. They've scored 4 goals in that stretch and conceded 14. The 0–5 to Juventus in Europe and the 0–3 to Cambuur away say this defence is struggling to hold a shape. They've not kept a clean sheet in any of those five. The head-to-head in the last 12 months is the one thing that gives you pause. Both meetings — the 1–1 at Ajax's ground on 21 February and the 2–2 at NEC's ground on 20 December — ended level. That's two draws in a row between these two. But that's just two games, and the older meetings going back to 2024 show Ajax winning more often, with 12 wins, 6 draws and just 1 loss across 19 fixtures. The recent draws don't change the fact that Ajax are the stronger side on current form. The real story here is the goals. Ajax at home over 20 games have gone over 2.5 in 14 of them. NEC away over 20 games have gone over 2.5 in 14 of them. In their latest 10, Ajax have been over 2.5 in 9 of 10, NEC in 8 of 10. The last five for Ajax were all over 2.5. The last five for NEC were over 2.5 in four of five. When you stack that up, the evidence for goals is hard to ignore. The counter-argument is that the two most recent meetings between these sides were low-scoring draws. A 1–1 and a 2–2. If that pattern holds, you'd be looking at under 2.5. But two games don't make a trend, and the broader picture — Ajax scoring 3.4 per game, NEC conceding 2.8 per game — points firmly the other way. Key Points: - Ajax have scored 17 goals in their last 5 games (3.4 per game) and all 5 went over 2.5 - NEC Nijmegen have won 0 of their last 5, scoring just 4 and conceding 14 - Both teams' venue records show 14/20 games over 2.5 goals - The last 2 head-to-head meetings were draws (1–1 and 2–2), but the older record favours Ajax - Ajax's home record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, scoring 2.15 per game I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.34. The scoring form on both sides is too strong to ignore, and the market's 74.63% implied probability sits below what the numbers suggest.