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Match analysis

ScotlandPremiership

Motherwell vs Celtic

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premiership fixture.

Full time0:2HT 0–1

Match Timeline

9'
Camilo Duran⚽
Normal Goal
41'
Joe Hodge🟨
Yellow Card
58'
Benjamin Nygren⚽
Normal Goal → Kasper Hogh
60'
Willy Gabriel Vogt🔄
Substitution 1 → Ibrahim Said
71'
Dylan Levitt🔄
Substitution 3 → Eythor Bjørgolfsson
71'
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden🔄
Substitution 2 → Jardell Kanga
73'
Kasper Hogh🔄
Substitution 2 → Shumaira Mheuka
73'
Camilo Duran🔄
Substitution 1 → Haissem Hassan
74'
Sebastian Tounekti🔄
Substitution 3 → Jota
78'
Benjamin Nygren🔄
Substitution 4 → Oliver Sorensen
82'
Kieran Tierney🟨
Yellow Card
82'
Kieran Tierney🔄
Substitution 5 → Jordan Lotomba
83'
Alex·Lowry🔄
Substitution 5 → Tawanda Maswanhise
83'
Stephen O'Donnell🔄
Substitution 4 → Jake Max Girdwood-Reich
85'
Jordan Lotomba🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

330Passes accurate696
6Shots insidebox20
2Shots outsidebox6
3Blocked Shots8
4Free Kicks3
2Shots on Goal15
12Goalkeeper Saves2
3Shots off Goal3
2Offsides1
385Total passes754
8Total Shots26
1Yellow Cards2
2Corner Kicks9
3Fouls4
0Red Cards0
44Ball Possession56
1.09expected_goals3.07

Tipster previews (3)

Umery Underdog

Motherwell vs Celtic: Underdog Value at Fir Park

The pickMotherwell win

Chance
23%
Odds
5.00
Model EV
+15.0%

Motherwell host Celtic on 11 October in the Premiership, and I have to say, the little dog at Fir Park has a genuine case here that the market isn't fully pricing in. Celtic arrive in the midst of a genuinely poor stretch. They have lost their last three matches, scoring just…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Motherwell

2W 3D 5L0.90 pts/game

Celtic

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Motherwell at home vs Celtic away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premiership

Overall edge
+222Celtic
Venue edge
+187Celtic
Rating period
Match snapshot
Motherwell versus Celtic: long term Elo, before the match
MotherwellHomeRatingCelticAway
Strength
1,565Overall1,787
1,562Match venue1,748
1,562At home1,818
1,513Away1,748
Attack & defence
1,524Attack1,654
1,583Defence1,643
1,522Home attack1,694
1,497Away attack1,635
1,583Home defence1,697
1,542Away defence1,598
Match profile
1,967Goal environment2,600
1,835Home goals2,057
1,632Away goals2,043
1,544Possession1,569
Specialist ratings
1,501Set-piece attack1,577
1,500Set-piece defence1,576
1,491Close games1,683
1,578Winning margin1,819

Match venue compares Motherwell at home with Celtic away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

MotherwellMotherwell1:1

Starting XI

1A. PaulsenG
45M. EmmanuelD
63D. LevittM
71J. HodgeM
47S. Palmer-HouldenF
5M. MoormannD
8L. FadingerM
11A. LowryM
2S. O'DonnellD
77W. VogtM
7T. SparrowD

CelticCeltic1:1

Starting XI

1V. SinisaloG
63K. TierneyD
22M. BaurM
17S. TounektiM
9K. HøghF
5L. ScalesD
42C. McGregorM
8B. NygrenM
47D. MurrayD
11C. DuránM
51Colby DonovanD