The League One clash between Montrose and Queen of the South arrives with a clear goal-scoring angle. Montrose have been solid at home, winning 66.67% of their last 6 home games and conceding just 1.17 goals per match. Their most recent league home win came 3-0 against East Kilbride, showing they can produce decisive results in front of their own fans. Queen of the South, meanwhile, have been struggling away, winning only 33.33% of their last 3 away fixtures and conceding a heavy 2.67 goals per game. Their last league away matches ended 0-1 against Peterhead and 1-5 at East Kilbride, highlighting their defensive fragility in hostile environments. Montrose’s recent form has been mixed in the league, with just one win in their last four league matches, but their overall last 10 games show 6 wins and 4 losses, including 3-0 victories against Clyde and East Kilbride. Their home goal average of 1.50 and Queen’s away goal average of 1.67 combine to 3.17 expected goals, before even factoring in the fact that Queen are leaking goals at a rate of 2.67 per game. The head-to-head record also supports a goal-heavy fixture: 7 of the last 10 meetings between these sides produced over 2.5 goals, including a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 win for Montrose in 2026. The goal expectancy model suggests Montrose are on for around 2.08 goals and Queen of the South for 1.42, totalling 3.50. That puts the Over 2.5 Goals market firmly in play. The current odds of 1.70 imply a 58.82% chance, but the statistical and form-based evidence points to a probability closer to 68%, giving a meaningful edge. Queen’s away defensive record, Montrose’s home attacking consistency, and the historical tendency for these two teams to produce goals all align. While Montrose’s league form has been patchy, their home strength and Queen’s away vulnerability make the goal market the stronger value angle than the match result. The home win at 2.00 offers only a thin statistical edge, and the draw at 3.50 lacks support. The Over 2.5 Goals bet, however, combines multiple confirmatory signals and clears the value threshold. Key Points: - Montrose have won 66.67% of their last 6 home games and average 1.50 goals scored at home. - Queen of the South concede 2.67 goals per game away and have lost 2 of their last 3 league away matches. - 7 of the last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams produced over 2.5 goals. - Goal expectancies total 3.50, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals market. - Over 2.5 Goals odds of 1.70 offer a clear value edge over the implied probability. Summary: The recommended bet is Over 2.5 Goals.