Skip to main content

Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Aston Villa vs Brentford

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time2:2HT 1–1

Match Timeline

10'
Yehor Yarmoliuk⚽
Normal Goal
12'
Nicolas Jackson⚽
Normal Goal
35'
Igor Thiago🟨
Yellow Card
45'
Jannik Schuster🔄
Substitution 1 → Aaron Hickey
45'
Matteo Ruggeri🔄
Substitution 1 → Aaron Wan-Bissaka
45+3'
Emiliano Buendía🟨
Yellow Card
52'
Kevin Schade🔄
Substitution 2 → Mamadou Sangare
64'
Emiliano Buendía🔄
Substitution 2 → Ibrahim Mbaye
67'
Yehor Yarmoliuk🔄
Substitution 4 → Mathias Jensen
67'
Keane Lewis-Potter🔄
Substitution 3 → Dango Ouattara
72'
Matty Cash🟨
Yellow Card
75'
Vitaly Janelt🟨
Yellow Card
77'
John McGinn⚽
Normal Goal → Johan Manzambi
79'
Kristoffer Ajer⚽
Normal Goal → Jaidon Anthony
82'
Michael Kayode🟨
Yellow Card
84'
Kristoffer Ajer🟨
Yellow Card
85'
Jaidon Anthony🔄
Substitution 5 → Callum Wilson
86'
Johan Manzambi🔄
Substitution 4 → Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
86'
João Gomes🔄
Substitution 3 → Ross Barkley
90+5'
Callum Wilson🟨
Yellow Card
90+5'
K. Andrews🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

1.8expected_goals1.27
320Passes accurate284
14Shots insidebox12
5Shots outsidebox2
7Blocked Shots3
23Free Kicks7
7Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves5
6Shots off Goal7
1Offsides1
406Total passes358
20Total Shots14
2Yellow Cards5
2Corner Kicks2
7Fouls24
0Red Cards0
52Ball Possession48

Tipster previews (6)

Pajimon

Brentford's Unbeaten Run Heads to Villa Park

The pickBrentford win

Chance
43%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+16.1%

Right, so we've got Aston Villa hosting Brentford on 10 October, and let me tell you, the form books are telling a pretty clear story here. Brentford walk in with their heads high. They haven't lost in their last five — two wins and three draws — and if you look at their last…

Mr Simple

Brentford's Unbeaten Run Looks Sharp at Villa

The pickBrentford win

Chance
44%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+18.8%

Right, so we've got Aston Villa hosting Brentford on 10 October, and if I'm being straight with you, the form books are pointing one way. Brentford have been absolute machines over the last 10 games — 6 wins, 4 draws, not a single defeat. They've chucked in 30 goals and only let…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Aston Villa

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Brentford

6W 4D 0L2.20 pts/game

Per game

Aston Villa at home vs Brentford away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+16Brentford
Venue edge
+117Aston Villa
Rating period
Match snapshot
Aston Villa versus Brentford: long term Elo, before the match
Aston VillaHomeRatingBrentfordAway
Strength
1,619Overall1,635
1,661Match venue1,543
1,661At home1,612
1,580Away1,543
Attack & defence
1,536Attack1,569
1,564Defence1,594
1,572Home attack1,595
1,501Away attack1,501
1,595Home defence1,575
1,551Away defence1,552
Match profile
1,863Goal environment1,765
1,712Home goals1,653
1,652Away goals1,612
1,513Possession1,488
Specialist ratings
1,505Set-piece attack1,472
1,506Set-piece defence1,473
1,613Close games1,558
1,619Winning margin1,665

Match venue compares Aston Villa at home with Brentford away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Aston VillaAston Villa1:1

Starting XI

1Z. SuzukiG
13M. RuggeriD
35João GomesM
44J. ManzambiM
11N. JacksonF
5T. MingsD
8B. KamaraM
10E. BuendíaM
3V. LindelöfD
7J. McGinnM
2M. CashD

BrentfordBrentford1:1

Starting XI

1C. KelleherG
25E. DioufD
27V. JaneltM
7K. SchadeM
9ThiagoF
20K. AjerD
6Y. YarmolyukM
23K. Lewis-PotterM
44Jannik SchusterD
19J. AnthonyM
33M. KayodeD