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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Charlton vs Derby

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time2:1HT 0–1

Match Timeline

23'
Sammie Szmodics⚽
Normal Goal → Carlton Morris
54'
Sammie Szmodics🔄
Substitution 1 → Alex Mowatt
59'
Sonny Carey🔄
Substitution 1 → Millenic Alli
59'
Matt Godden🔄
Substitution 2 → Miles Leaburn
60'
Sondre Langås🟨
Yellow Card
61'
Lloyd Jones⚽
Normal Goal → Karlan Grant
73'
Karlan Grant🔄
Substitution 3 → Joe Rankin-Costello
80'
Tyreece Campbell⚽
Normal Goal
83'
Craig Forsyth🔄
Substitution 2 → Rhian Brewster
83'
Oscar Fraulo🔄
Substitution 3 → Corey Blackett-Taylor
84'
Joe Ward🔄
Substitution 4 → Max Johnston
84'
Lewis Travis🔄
Substitution 5 → Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
85'
Danny McNamara🔄
Substitution 4 → Ivan Mesík
85'
Nathaniel Chalobah🔄
Substitution 5 → Collins Sichenje
90'
Alex Mowatt🟨
Yellow Card
90+8'
Rhian Brewster🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal5
13Total Shots15
5Blocked Shots6
9Shots insidebox11
4Shots outsidebox4
7Fouls15
5Corner Kicks4
0Offsides1
45Ball Possession55
0Yellow Cards3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
368Total passes461
280Passes accurate351
76Passes %76
1.07expected_goals1.01
-0.73goals_prevented-0.73

Tipster preview

PajimonWon

Charlton vs Derby Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals Value Bet

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+21.0%

G'day, punters. If you're looking for a dry, defensive tussle, you're barking up the wrong tree. We want meat on the bone here, not some leafy green salad. This Charlton versus Derby fixture is shaping up to be a proper high-scoring affair, and the numbers don't lie. Charlton…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Charlton

5W 1D 4L1.60 pts/game

Derby

3W 1D 6L1.00 pts/game

Per game

Charlton at home vs Derby away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+92Derby
Venue edge
+9Derby
Rating period
Match snapshot
Charlton versus Derby: long term Elo, before the match
CharltonHomeRatingDerbyAway
Strength
1,429Overall1,521
1,448Match venue1,456
1,448At home1,519
1,425Away1,456
Attack & defence
1,395Attack1,504
1,520Defence1,542
1,409Home attack1,457
1,399Away attack1,495
1,538Home defence1,582
1,495Away defence1,500
Match profile
1,440Goal environment1,533
1,457Home goals1,452
1,483Away goals1,582
1,457Possession1,478
Specialist ratings
1,449Set-piece attack1,480
1,450Set-piece defence1,480
1,456Close games1,487
1,419Winning margin1,533

Match venue compares Charlton at home with Derby away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

CharltonCharltonUnknown

Starting XI

25William MannionG
20Danny McNamaraD
5Lloyd JonesD
12Billy KoumetioD
17Amari'i BellD
6Conor CoventryM
15Nathaniel ChalobahM
7Tyreece CampbellM
14Sonny CareyM
9Karlan GrantM
24Matt GoddenF

DerbyDerbyUnknown

Starting XI

1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG
23Joe WardD
6Sondre LangåsD
28Dion SandersonD
3Craig ForsythD
18Charlie TaylorD
29Oscar FrauloM
27Lewis TravisM
8Bobby ClarkM
9Carlton MorrisF
11Sammie SzmodicsF