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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Birmingham vs Southampton

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:1HT 0–1

Match Timeline

45'
K. Schlotterbeck⚽
Normal Goal → L. Scienza
45+1'
B. Osayi-Samuel🟨
Yellow Card
55'
A. Priske⚽
Normal Goal → P. Roberts
61'
C. Bragg🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Ward-Prowse
61'
T. Fellows🔄
Substitution 2 → K. Matsuki
69'
C. Larin🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Mubama
70'
P. Roberts🔄
Substitution 1 → D. Gray
72'
D. Mubama🟨
Yellow Card
77'
J. E. Solis Romero🟨
Yellow Card
81'
L. Scienza🔄
Substitution 4 → L. Dobbin
86'
C. Vicente🔄
Substitution 2 → E. Laird
86'
A. Priske🔄
Substitution 3 → L. Vazquez
87'
J. Stansfield🔄
Substitution 4 → Paik Seung-Ho
90+2'
N. Wood🟨
Yellow Card
90+2'
L. Vazquez🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

197Passes accurate407
11Shots insidebox12
5Shots outsidebox1
4Blocked Shots4
8Free Kicks12
4Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves3
8Shots off Goal5
2Offsides5
287Total passes505
16Total Shots13
3Yellow Cards2
3Corner Kicks5
12Fouls8
0Red Cards0
48Ball Possession52

Tipster previews (4)

Value VinnyLost

Birmingham vs Southampton | Value Analysis

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+29.9%

The bookies are looking at this Championship clash and seeing a relatively standard mid-table scrap, but the mathematical reality tells a much more explosive story. As Value Vinny, I don't care about the "narrative" of the league table; I care about the discrepancy between…

Mr SimpleLost

Birmingham vs Southampton | Over 2.5 Goals

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
75%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+43.3%

Right then, gather 'round, folks! We've got a proper Championship clash on our hands as Birmingham host Southampton. If you're looking for a bit of action and some goals, you're in the right place because the numbers are screaming 'action' all over the place. We're looking for…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Birmingham

6W 3D 1L2.10 pts/game

Southampton

6W 2D 2L2.00 pts/game

Per game

Birmingham at home vs Southampton away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+121Southampton
Venue edge
+21Southampton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Birmingham versus Southampton: long term Elo, before the match
BirminghamHomeRatingSouthamptonAway
Strength
1,523Overall1,643
1,556Match venue1,577
1,556At home1,634
1,410Away1,577
Attack & defence
1,446Attack1,597
1,553Defence1,564
1,497Home attack1,595
1,380Away attack1,557
1,570Home defence1,594
1,497Away defence1,509
Match profile
1,528Goal environment1,687
1,515Home goals1,600
1,513Away goals1,587
1,517Possession1,536
Specialist ratings
1,562Set-piece attack1,531
1,561Set-piece defence1,531
1,516Close games1,559
1,522Winning margin1,676

Match venue compares Birmingham at home with Southampton away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BirminghamBirminghamUnknown

Starting XI

1J. BeadleUnknown
26B. Osayi-SamuelUnknown
5P. NeumannUnknown
4C. KlarerUnknown
20A. CochraneUnknown
24T. IwataUnknown
14J. E. Solis RomeroUnknown
16P. RobertsUnknown
28J. StansfieldUnknown
7C. VicenteUnknown
9A. PriskeUnknown

SouthamptonSouthamptonUnknown

Starting XI

1D. PeretzUnknown
14J. BreeUnknown
15N. WoodUnknown
13K. SchlotterbeckUnknown
3R. ManningUnknown
26C. BraggUnknown
4F. DownesUnknown
18T. FellowsUnknown
10F. AzazUnknown
7L. ScienzaUnknown
9C. LarinUnknown