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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Bolton vs Stoke City

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Tipster previews (6)

Oracle

Bolton vs Stoke City: The Old Ground Tells the Truth

The pickBolton win

Chance
40%
Odds
2.78
Model EV
+11.2%

In my long years of watching football, I have learned that the loudest voices in the market are not always the wisest. When the bookmakers place Stoke City as slight favourites at 2.57, they are following the recent rhythm of the visitors, and that rhythm is real. But rhythm is…

Value Vinny

Stoke City's Form Edge Looks Sharp at Bolton

The pickStoke City win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.57
Model EV
+41.3%

Stoke City arrive at Bolton's ground riding the kind of form that makes odds compilers reach for their calculators. Four wins and a draw in their last five — 2.6 points per game, 10 goals scored, just 3 conceded — is not a coincidence. They've won their last two, and they've…

Pajimon

Bolton vs Stoke City: The Home Record Tells the Tale

The pickBolton win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.78
Model EV
+16.8%

Look, I'm sitting here with the braai going and a cold one in hand, and I'm telling you — this fixture has a story written in the numbers, and it's not a subtle one. Bolton at home against Stoke City away, and the venue records are doing the heavy lifting. Over 20 home games…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Bolton

4W 1D 5L1.30 pts/game

Stoke City

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Bolton at home vs Stoke City away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+136Stoke City
Venue edge
+36Stoke City
Rating period
Bolton versus Stoke City: long term Elo, before the match
BoltonHomeRatingStoke CityAway
Strength
1,322Overall1,458
1,380Match venue1,415
1,380At home1,508
1,326Away1,415
Attack & defence
1,338Attack1,445
1,432Defence1,502
1,346Home attack1,483
1,358Away attack1,385
1,478Home defence1,543
1,414Away defence1,500
Match profile
1,557Goal environment1,340
1,437Home goals1,433
1,620Away goals1,407
1,502Possession1,499
Specialist ratings
1,498Set-piece attack1,528
1,498Set-piece defence1,527
1,426Close games1,496
1,291Winning margin1,453

Match venue compares Bolton at home with Stoke City away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting lineups

Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.