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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Watford vs Burnley

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Match Timeline

13'
Jacob Bruun Larsen⚽
Normal Goal → Reo Hatate
19'
Zeki Amdouni⚽
Normal Goal
25'
Reo Hatate⚽
Normal Goal → Lucas Pires Silva

Tipster previews (6)

Pajimon

Watford vs Burnley: A Low-Scoring Championship Affair

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
52%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+5.6%

Look, I'll be honest with you - this one's got me scratching my head a bit, but the numbers are telling me something. Watford are at home, and if you look at their record over the last 20 home games, 12 of those 20 finished under 2.5 goals. That's a solid pattern and it's the…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Watford

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Burnley

0W 6D 4L0.60 pts/game

Per game

Watford at home vs Burnley away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+221Burnley
Venue edge
+122Burnley
Rating period
Watford versus Burnley: long term Elo, before the match
WatfordHomeRatingBurnleyAway
Strength
1,419Overall1,640
1,529Match venue1,651
1,529At home1,676
1,388Away1,651
Attack & defence
1,398Attack1,518
1,497Defence1,660
1,453Home attack1,527
1,395Away attack1,517
1,553Home defence1,695
1,468Away defence1,649
Match profile
1,665Goal environment1,397
1,578Home goals1,412
1,587Away goals1,485
1,500Possession1,502
Specialist ratings
1,464Set-piece attack1,515
1,465Set-piece defence1,514
1,480Close games1,626
1,402Winning margin1,639

Match venue compares Watford at home with Burnley away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting lineups

Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.