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Match analysis

EnglandLeague One

Oxford United vs Milton Keynes Dons

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League One fixture.

Match Timeline

20'
M. Harris⚽
Normal Goal
29'
C. Goode⚽
Normal Goal → D. Barlaser
34'
A. Collins⚽
Normal Goal → R. Wintle
51'
M. Ekpiteta🟨
Yellow Card
63'
C. Brannagan🟨
Yellow Card
64'
J. McDonnell🔄
Substitution 1 → G. O'Donkor
69'
A. Collins🔄
Substitution 1 → N. Mendez-Laing
74'
S. Nombe🔄
Substitution 2 → C. Paterson
74'
D. Barlaser🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Matete
76'
C. Goode🟨
Yellow Card
77'
B. Spencer🔄
Substitution 2 → P. Kioso
78'
S. Dembele🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Missanga
78'
C. Goode🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Sanders
90+1'
M. Harris🟨
Yellow Card
90+4'
J. Matete🟨
Yellow Card
90+5'
C. Brown⚽
Normal Goal → G. O'Donkor

Tipster previews (4)

Value VinnyLost

Oxford United vs Milton Keynes Dons: Home Win Value

The pickOxford United win

Chance
56%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+17.6%

The odds compilers have priced Oxford United to host Milton Keynes Dons at 2.10 for a home win. In my world, that number represents a 47.6% implied probability, but the underlying mathematics and form data tell a different story. When you strip away the noise and look at…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Oxford United

6W 0D 4L1.80 pts/game

Milton Keynes Dons

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Oxford United at home vs Milton Keynes Dons away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League One

Overall edge
+117Oxford United
Venue edge
+21Oxford United
Rating period
Match snapshot
Oxford United versus Milton Keynes Dons: long term Elo, before the match
Oxford UnitedHomeRatingMilton Keynes DonsAway
Strength
1,580Overall1,464
1,543Match venue1,522
1,543At home1,458
1,545Away1,522
Attack & defence
1,531Attack1,418
1,587Defence1,544
1,546Home attack1,412
1,495Away attack1,459
1,559Home defence1,529
1,564Away defence1,568
Match profile
1,772Goal environment1,600
1,660Home goals1,537
1,612Away goals1,563
1,500Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,500Set-piece attack1,500
1,500Set-piece defence1,500
1,501Close games1,484
1,609Winning margin1,458

Match venue compares Oxford United at home with Milton Keynes Dons away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting lineups

Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.