Mallorca have been a team of very few goals in recent weeks, and that habit looks set to continue when they host Las Palmas on 11 October in the Segunda División. I love a low-scoring affair where the little guy gets a bit of breathing room, and this fixture has all the makings of one. The most telling number in this fixture is Mallorca's last five matches: every single one finished with two or fewer goals. The 0–0 at Girona on 4 October, the 0–1 loss to Almeria at home on 27 September, the 1–0 win at Real Sociedad II on 19 September, the 2–0 victory over Sabadell at home on 13 September, and the 0–0 draw at Eldense on 5 September — five games, five under 2.5. Stretch the window to ten and the pattern holds: eight of those ten were under 2.5. At home over 20 games, 7 of 20 finished under 2.5. Las Palmas, meanwhile, have their own under-2.5 record on the road: 8 of their last 20 away games ended with two or fewer goals. The head-to-head, which is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months, is split evenly — 4 over and 4 under across 8 meetings. The counter-argument is real, and I'll give it its due. Las Palmas' last five games produced 3 over 2.5, and their last 10 saw 6 over 2.5. Their away record over 20 games actually leans over (12 over, 8 under). Mallorca's home record over 20 games is 13 over, 7 under. So the longer-term numbers don't shout "under" as loudly as Mallorca's last five do. But when a team goes 5-for-5 under 2.5 in its most recent matches, and 8-for-10 over the last ten, that is a habit worth respecting. The 20-game averages smooth out the recent shift, and the last five games are the ones that matter most for this fixture. The underdog in this market is the under-2.5 side at 2.1, and the evidence says the little dog has a real chance here. Key Points: - Mallorca have finished under 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10 - Las Palmas have had 8 of their last 20 away games end under 2.5 - The head-to-head is split 4 over, 4 under across 8 historical meetings - Las Palmas' recent form (3 of 5 over 2.5) and 20-game away record (12 over) push the other way - Mallorca's home record over 20 games is 13 over, 7 under Verdict: I'm backing under 2.5 goals at 2.1.

Mallorca host Las Palmas on 11 October in the Segunda División, and the numbers at Mallorca's ground do not leave much room for debate. Over their last 20 home games, Mallorca have won 13, drawn 3 and lost 4, scoring 2.1 per game while conceding just 0.85. That is a side that puts the ball in the net and keeps the other end quiet in equal measure. Las Palmas, by contrast, have won only 8 of their last 20 away games, drawing 4 and losing 8, and they concede 1.7 per game on the road. The points-per-game gap — 2.1 to 1.4 — is the kind of separation that does not get lost in a 90-minute window. The head-to-head is dated, with no meetings within the last 12 months, so I will not dress it up as current form. What it does show, though, is that Mallorca won both of the two older meetings at their ground (3–1 and 1–0), and Las Palmas have never beaten them there. Historical, yes, but it reinforces the pattern the home record paints. The counter-argument is real and I will not pretend it away. Mallorca's last five games have been low-scoring affairs: they failed to score in three of those five, and every single one finished under 2.5 goals. Their most recent home game was a 0–1 loss to Almeria on 27 September, and their latest outing was a 0–0 draw at Girona on 4 October. If this match follows that pattern, the margin of victory could be razor-thin. Las Palmas, too, have shown they can score on the road — they won 1–0 at Cadiz on 12 September and netted twice in a 2–3 loss at Eibar on 27 September. A 1–1 or 2–2 is not out of the question. But the 20-game home record is the anchor here. Thirteen wins in twenty home games is not a coincidence, and Las Palmas' 8 losses in 20 away games is a pattern that does not evaporate because of a red card in the 90th minute at Eibar. The bookmaker has Mallorca at 1.62, which prices them at 61.73%. My read of the football puts them a touch higher than that — the home record, the away weakness, the clean-sheet numbers all point the same way. There is value here, modest but real, and that is all I need. Key Points: - Mallorca: 13W 3D 4L in 20 home games, 2.1 scored per game, 0.85 conceded per game - Las Palmas: 8W 4D 8L in 20 away games, 1.7 conceded per game - H2H at Mallorca's ground (historical): 2 wins for Mallorca, 0 for Las Palmas - Mallorca's last 5 games: 5/5 under 2.5 goals, 3/5 failed to score - Las Palmas' last 5: 1W 2D 2L, 7 conceded in 5 games Mallorca home win.

Mallorca host Las Palmas on 11 October in the Segunda División, and the goal numbers here are painting a very clear picture. Mallorca's last five matches all finished with two or fewer goals. The 0–0 at Girona on 4 October, the 0–1 loss to Almeria at home on 27 September, the 1–0 win at Real Sociedad II on 19 September, the 2–0 against Sabadell at home on 13 September, and the 0–0 at Eldense on 5 September — that is five straight games under 2.5. Stretch it out to ten and the pattern holds: only 2 of their last 10 went over. At home over 20 games, Mallorca have conceded 0.85 per game and kept 7 clean sheets, while Las Palmas on the road over 20 games have conceded 1.7 per game and managed just 3 clean sheets. That is a clear difference in goals conceded per game, and it is the kind of thing that keeps a scoreline tight. The head-to-head is dated — no meetings within the last 12 months — but what it does show is that at Mallorca's ground the two meetings listed both went to the hosts, 3–1 and 1–0. Las Palmas have never won at this venue in the older meetings on record. Now the counter-argument, and it is not nothing. Las Palmas have scored in four of their last five games and their last 10 shows 6 of 10 going over 2.5. Their away record over 20 games has 12 over 2.5. And Mallorca's own home record over 20 games has 13 over 2.5. So the 20-game picture at this venue actually leans towards goals. Las Palmas are not a team that sits back and plays for a 0–0; they scored 6 in their last five. That said, they also conceded 7 in those same five, so the defensive fragility on the road is real. Key Points: - Mallorca's last 5 games all finished under 2.5 goals; 8 of their last 10 were under - Mallorca home: 0.85 conceded per game, 7 clean sheets in 20; Las Palmas away: 1.7 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets in 20 - Las Palmas have scored in 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 10 went over 2.5 - H2H at this venue (historical): Mallorca won both meetings, 3–1 and 1–0 - No meetings within the last 12 months; the head-to-head is historical record only My take: the recent form is screaming low-scoring, and the difference in goals conceded at this venue is hard to ignore. I rate the chance of under 2.5 goals at around 53%, which sits above the market's 47.62% implied probability. The 20-game over 2.5 record at this ground is the main reason I am not more confident, but the last five games tell a different story. Under 2.5 goals is the pick.

The wise old one would say: "A team that holds the door shut, it is, that wins the day." Mallorca, at their ground, have done exactly that. Thirteen wins from twenty home games, a points-per-game figure of 2.1, and an average of 0.85 goals conceded per match. In their last ten matches across all grounds, they have conceded just four goals and kept seven clean sheets. The numbers do not whisper; they shout. Las Palmas, meanwhile, travel with a heavier burden. Eight losses from twenty away games, 1.4 points per game, and 1.7 goals conceded per match on the road. The last five matches tell a similar story: one win, two draws, two losses, and seven goals conceded. A red card in the 90th minute against Eibar two weeks ago did not help the cause, and the 1–2 defeat to Burgos at home three weeks ago showed the fragility of their defence. The head-to-head, I must confess, is a tale from another era. No meeting between these two sides in the last twelve months. The record stretches back six years, and in those eight encounters, Mallorca won four, drew three, and lost one. At this very ground, both meetings ended in Mallorca victories — 3–1 and 1–0. Historical, yes, but the pattern is a pattern nonetheless. "The past, it is, a mirror, but not the whole truth," the wise one would say. Yet, the wise one must also see the shadow. Mallorca's last five matches have been a tale of low scores: three goals scored, one conceded, and all five games under 2.5. Two of those were 0–0 draws. The 0–1 loss to Almeria at home two weeks ago is a small crack in the armour. Las Palmas, for all their away woes, did score in four of their last five and drew 2–2 at home against Valladolid. They are not without a spark. The market prices Mallorca's win at 1.62, implying a 61.73% chance. My own reading of the evidence — the home record, the away record, the recent form, the historical pattern at this ground — places the likelihood a touch higher, around 65%. The edge is small, but it is there, and the evidence is solid enough to trust. "Small, it may seem, but small edges, they add up, they do." Key Points: - Mallorca: 13W 3D 4L in 20 home games; 2.1 goals scored, 0.85 conceded per game - Las Palmas: 8W 4D 8L in 20 away games; 1.45 scored, 1.7 conceded per game - Head-to-head at this venue (historical): Mallorca won both meetings (3–1, 1–0) - Mallorca's last 5: 2W 2D 1L; Las Palmas' last 5: 1W 2D 2L - Las Palmas conceded 7 goals in their last 5 matches The bet: home win.