Round of the Bundesliga kicks off on Saturday afternoon, and it’s Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt. No fancy talk here — just goals, graft, and a look at the numbers that matter. Union Berlin have been a mixed bag over the last ten games, picking up 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses for 1.20 points per game. They’ve scored 27 goals and conceded 20, so they’re not short of attacking intent, but they’ve never put a clean sheet to the board in that stretch. At home, Union’s last three games have been a win, a draw and a loss, with them scoring 2.33 goals per game and conceding 2.67. Eintracht Frankfurt, on the other hand, have been firing. In their last ten matches they’ve won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 for 1.80 points per game. They’ve scored 33 goals and conceded just 17, with four clean sheets. Their away form is particularly strong: 50% win rate, 3.62 goals scored per game and 1.88 conceded. When these two sides meet, it’s usually been a bit of a rollercoaster. Union have won four of their last ten meetings against Frankfurt, Frankfurt have won three, and three have ended in draws. The last meeting at Union’s ground was a 1-1 draw, but the bigger picture here is about form and the numbers. Frankfurt’s goal expectancy in this fixture is 3.15, compared to Union’s 2.10. That’s a significant gap. Frankfurt’s finishing numbers are also well above average — they’re overperforming their expected goals by a big margin — while Union are exactly where their numbers say they should be. Now, Union do have the home edge, and they’ve pulled off some big wins recently, including a 12-1 demolition of Optik Rathenow. But Frankfurt’s away form, their superior goal numbers, and their strong finishing make them the side with the edge here. So, putting it all together: Frankfurt’s form is stronger, their away numbers are better, and the goal expectancies heavily favour them. The odds back that up, with Frankfurt at 2.60 to win. That’s a value bet for us. Key Points: - Union Berlin: 3W 3D 4L in last 10, 1.20 ppg, 27 GS, 20 GC. - Eintracht Frankfurt: 5W 3D 2L in last 10, 1.80 ppg, 33 GS, 17 GC. - Frankfurt away form: 50% win rate, 3.62 goals scored per game. - Union home form: 33.33% win rate, 2.33 goals scored per game. - Goal expectancies: Union 2.10, Frankfurt 3.15. - Frankfurt finishing delta: +1.46 overperforming expected goals. - Odds: Frankfurt win at 2.60. Mr Simple’s tip: Back Eintracht Frankfurt to win.