Match analysis
PortugalPrimeira Liga
Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Primeira Liga fixture.
Value VinnyThe pickOver 2.5
Odds don't lie — but bookies do. And in this one, the bookies are underpricing a pattern that's been staring at them for months. Estrela and Casa Pia have met three times in the last 12 months, and every single one of those meetings went over 2.5 goals: 1–2 in July, 4–0 in…
PajimonThe pickEstrela win
Look, I'll be honest with you — this one's got the smell of a home win, and I'm not talking about the braai smoke drifting over the pitch. Estrela at home against Casa Pia away is a setup that makes my eyes light up like a rugby final under the lights. Let's start with what's in…
The Big "O"The pickOver 2.5
The Big O here, and I'm telling you, this one's got the kind of goal potential that keeps me up at night. Estrela and Casa Pia meet at Estrela's ground on 24 October in the Primeira Liga, and the numbers are singing a very loud song about goals. Let's start with the…
Mr SimpleThe pickOver 2.5
Right, so we've got Estrela at home to Casa Pia on 24 October, and if you've been following the form, this one's got a whiff of goals about it. Let's start with the head-to-head, because it's telling. The last three times these two have met, they've all gone over 2.5 goals. At…
Casa Pia make the trip to Estrela on Saturday 24 October for a Primeira Liga fixture. On Elo there is next to nothing in it between Estrela and Casa Pia.
Estrela are blowing hot and cold: their last five read W L L D W. The last five for Casa Pia go W L W L D, and on that evidence they are struggling for results.
At home Estrela score 2.0 a game and concede 1.8. Casa Pia average 0.8 goals for and 1.7 against away from home. Over 2.5 goals is the obvious lean, with the scoring and conceding rates combining to 3.3 a game.
Our best-value bet here is over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.02, from four tipster previews on this match. Opinion is split, though, with the picks spread across two different bets.
| EstrelaHome | Rating | Casa PiaAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,484 | Overall | 1,459 |
| 1,498 | Match venue | 1,479 |
| 1,498 | At home | 1,472 |
| 1,432 | Away | 1,479 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,489 | Attack | 1,392 |
| 1,502 | Defence | 1,553 |
| 1,487 | Home attack | 1,430 |
| 1,428 | Away attack | 1,413 |
| 1,539 | Home defence | 1,548 |
| 1,470 | Away defence | 1,536 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,523 | Goal environment | 1,433 |
| 1,540 | Home goals | 1,425 |
| 1,483 | Away goals | 1,508 |
| 1,491 | Possession | 1,455 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,437 | Set-piece attack | 1,465 |
| 1,438 | Set-piece defence | 1,465 |
| 1,483 | Close games | 1,496 |
| 1,486 | Winning margin | 1,448 |
Match venue compares Estrela at home with Casa Pia away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.
Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.
Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.
Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.
In ten meetings since December 2021, Estrela have won five, Casa Pia have taken four and one was drawn. Every tip we publish on the two sides together sits on our Estrela vs Casa Pia prediction page.
