Welcome to the National League, where the graft is real and the goals don’t always flow like they do in the top flight. This Saturday, Worthing host FC Halifax Town, and if you’re looking for a straightforward tip, I’m keeping it simple. Both sides are sitting in the middle of the pack, but the story here isn’t about league position—it’s about trends, defence, and where the value actually lies. Worthing have been finding their feet at home lately. After a shaky start to the campaign, they’ve turned a corner, picking up four points from their last two home matches against AFC Hornchurch and Barrow. Their defence has tightened up, conceding just 1.29 goals per game at home, and their points-per-game average at the Dripping Pan is climbing. They’ve got the momentum, but don’t expect a goal-fest. They’re averaging 1.14 goals scored at home, which tells you they’re grinding out results rather than blowing teams away. FC Halifax Town come into this with a reputation for attack, having scored 21 goals in nine league games. But take a closer look at their away form, and the picture changes. On the road, Halifax are struggling to find the back of the net, averaging just 0.67 goals per game. In fact, their last three away fixtures have all finished with two goals or fewer: a 1-1 draw, a 1-0 win, and a 1-0 loss. They’re playing for the result, not the scoreline, and their away defence remains solid at one goal conceded per game. When you put a Worthing side that’s improving defensively against a Halifax side that’s struggling to score away from home, the math points in one direction. The expected goals for this fixture sit at a low 2.05, and the market has Under 2.5 Goals priced at 2.35. That’s not a price you see every day when the underlying numbers suggest a tight, cagey affair. Both teams are prioritising not losing over attacking flair, and the trends back it up. Key Points: - Worthing’s home defence has tightened, conceding just 1.29 goals per game recently. - FC Halifax Town average a meagre 0.67 goals scored away from home. - Halifax’s last three away matches have all stayed Under 2.5 Goals. - Combined goal expectancy sits at 2.05, heavily favouring a low-scoring contest. - The 2.35 odds on Under 2.5 offer clear value over the market’s fair probability. Stick to the graft and back Under 2.5 Goals for this one. It’s a low-risk, high-value pick that fits the trends perfectly.