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Match analysis

ItalySerie B

Padova vs Carrarese

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie B fixture.

Tipster previews (5)

Value Vinny

Padova's Home Edge Against a Goalless Carrarese

The pickPadova win

Chance
55%
Odds
1.98
Model EV
+8.9%

Let's cut to the numbers, because the numbers are telling a story here. Carrarese walk into Padova's ground having lost their last three matches without scoring a single goal — 0-1 at home to Benevento on 19 September, 0-1 at Catanzaro on 12 September, and 0-1 at home to Empoli…

Pajimon

Padova to Edge Carrarese at Home

The pickPadova win

Chance
55%
Odds
1.98
Model EV
+8.9%

Look, I'll be honest with you — this one's got the smell of a braai on the grill. Carrarese have lost their last three games and scored not a single goal in that stretch. Three straight losses, zero on the scoreboard. Their away record over the last 20 games is 3 wins, 4 draws…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Padova

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Carrarese

1W 2D 7L0.50 pts/game

Per game

Padova at home vs Carrarese away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie B

Overall edge
+82Padova
Venue edge
+88Padova
Rating period
Padova versus Carrarese: long term Elo, before the match
PadovaHomeRatingCarrareseAway
Strength
1,493Overall1,410
1,492Match venue1,404
1,492At home1,499
1,456Away1,404
Attack & defence
1,426Attack1,418
1,530Defence1,529
1,416Home attack1,459
1,451Away attack1,429
1,566Home defence1,571
1,484Away defence1,478
Match profile
1,452Goal environment1,472
1,425Home goals1,455
1,527Away goals1,517
1,480Possession1,492
Specialist ratings
1,458Set-piece attack1,520
1,459Set-piece defence1,519
1,519Close games1,408
1,485Winning margin1,414

Match venue compares Padova at home with Carrarese away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting lineups

Lineups are not available yet. They are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off.