Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper chat about this Eerste Divisie clash. We're looking at Jong Ajax taking on Almere City FC on 2026-03-20. It's a late afternoon kick-off, and the stakes are clear when you look at the table.

Jong Ajax are sitting pretty low in 19th place with just 29 points from 31 games. They've won 7, drawn 8, and lost 16. Almere City FC, on the other hand, are cruising in 6th spot with 48 points. That's a massive 19-point gap, and it tells you a lot about who's in control of their season.

Now, let's talk history, because this is where the story gets interesting. Over the last 8 meetings, Almere City have been the clear boss. They've won 6 times, while Ajax have only managed 2 wins. Even more telling? When they meet at Ajax's ground, Almere has won all 3 times. That's a 100% win rate for the visitors in this fixture at this venue. The last time they met in December 2025, Almere took a 3-2 victory. That's a high-scoring game, which fits the pattern.

Looking at the stats, both teams love a goal. Jong Ajax average 2.60 goals per game at home, while Almere City average 2.50 goals per game when they're on the road. That suggests a lively affair, but the H2H dominance is the real talking point here. The odds for an Away Win are sitting at 1.65. Given Almere's 75% win rate in their head-to-head record and their superior league position, there's value in backing the visitors. The market implies about a 60% chance, but the facts point to something closer to 75%.

Don't get caught out by the low odds on the goals markets; the fair probabilities suggest the bookies have priced those a bit too tight. Stick to the main event. Almere City have the form, the history, and the points to justify the win.

Key Points:

• Almere City FC are 6th (48pts), Jong Ajax are 19th (29pts).

• H2H Record: Almere City have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

• Last Meeting: Almere City won 3-2 in December 2025.

• Almere City average 2.50 goals per game away.

• Jong Ajax average 2.60 goals per game at home.

• Away Win odds are 1.65, offering value given the H2H win rate.

The pick is clear: Back Almere City to take the three points.