Lorient vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's the classic top vs bottom clash, and blimey, the numbers don't half tell a story.

PSG are sitting pretty at the top of Ligue 1, and you can see why. They're banging in three goals a game on average, and even on their travels, they're not shy - 3.17 goals per away game. Just look at their recent form: a 3-0 win at Brest, and get this, a 7-2 hammering of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League. They're scoring for fun, mate.

Lorient, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it down in 16th. They're leaking goals like a sieve - 2.2 per game overall. But here's the interesting bit: at home, they're both scoring and conceding 2.75 goals per game. It's end-to-end stuff when they play at their place. Their recent home games have been crackers: 3-3 vs Brest, 3-1 vs Monaco, 4-0 vs Rennes, and even that 1-7 thrashing by Lille had plenty of goals.

When these two have met before, it's usually PSG who come out on top, but there's often goals. Last time out was 4-1 to PSG, and five of their nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.

The stats are screaming goals here. Lorient's home games average 5.5 goals, PSG's away games average 4.5 goals. Both teams tend to score, and neither defence looks particularly solid. The goal expectancy is sitting at 5.0 goals, which tells you everything you need to know.

PSG winning at 1.27 seems about right but offers no value. The real value here is in the goals market. With both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, this has all the makings of a proper goal-fest.

Key Points:

• PSG top of the league scoring 3 goals per game

• Lorient 16th conceding 2.2 goals per game

• Lorient home games average 5.5 goals (2.75 scored, 2.75 conceded)

• PSG away games average 4.5 goals (3.17 scored, 1.33 conceded)

• Head-to-head shows 5 of 9 games went over 2.5 goals

• Goal expectancy for this match is 5.0 goals

• Both teams have high-scoring recent form

The numbers point to plenty of goals, and that's where the value lies. Over 2.5 goals looks the business at 1.44.