Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got what looks like an early relegation six-pointer brewing in the J1 League this Saturday morning as Cerezo Osaka welcome Shimizu S-pulse. Both sides have had a proper stinker of a start to the 2026 season - Cerezo sitting down in 15th with just one win from four, while Shimizu are one place above with a solitary victory themselves. It's early doors, mind, but neither fanbase is exactly buzzing right now.

Cerezo come into this off the back of two straight defeats - a 1-0 drubbing at V-varen Nagasaki and a 2-1 home loss to Sanfrecce Hiroshima. That's three goals conceded in two games, and their defence is looking about as solid as a chocolate teapot. But here's the thing - when these lot play Shimizu, they turn into absolute goal machines. We're talking six wins from the last nine meetings, including a thumping 4-1 victory away at Shimizu back in November. At home against this lot? Cerezo have won four out of five, drawing the other. It's been one-way traffic historically.

Shimizu, meanwhile, showed some proper fight last time out, grabbing a 2-2 draw against high-flying Gamba Osaka after beating Vissel Kobe 1-0 the week before. They're no pushovers, even if their away record is patchy (just one win in four on the road this season). The stats show they're averaging a goal a game away from home, which ain't spectacular but could be enough to trouble this leaky Cerezo backline.

Now, looking at the numbers, the head-to-head is screaming goals at us. Seven of the last nine clashes have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have found the net in eight of those nine meetings. We're talking 4-1s, 4-2s, 3-1s - these two don't do boring when they get together. Cerezo's attack has been improving recently (even if the results haven't shown it), and Shimizu have found the net in seven of their last ten outings.

Key Points:

• Cerezo have won 6 of the last 9 meetings, including 4 of 5 at home (80% win rate)

• Both teams have scored in 8 of the last 9 head-to-heads (89% BTTS rate)

• 7 of the last 9 clashes have seen over 2.5 goals

• Cerezo have lost their last 2 games (1-0 vs V-varen, 1-2 vs Sanfrecce)

• Shimizu are unbeaten in their last 2 (2-2 vs Gamba, 1-0 vs Vissel Kobe)

• Cerezo's home form this season: 25% win rate, conceding 1.25 goals per game

• Shimizu's away form this season: 25% win rate, scoring 1.00 goal per game

Summary: Look, Cerezo should win this on paper given their historical dominance over Shimizu, but their current form is dodgy and Shimizu have shown they can mix it with the big boys. The value isn't in picking a winner here - it's in expecting a bit of a goal-fest. Both Teams To Score at 1.73 is the play. These two have served up absolute bangers in the past, and with both defences looking leakier than a sieve early in the season, I'm backing the net to bulge at both ends. Get on BTTS Yes!