Empoli vs Modena Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B tussle. Empoli at home to Modena – on paper, you'd fancy the away side sitting pretty in 6th. But football isn't played on paper, is it? It's played on a pitch, and the recent form book tells a very different story.

Empoli might be down in 10th, but they've been no mugs at home. They're averaging 1.6 goals a game in their own backyard and have kept a clean sheet in half of their last ten outings. That's a solid foundation. Their recent results are a mixed bag, but there are some real gems in there. A 1-0 win away at Cesena, who are flying high in 5th, and a hard-fought 1-1 draw with the league leaders Frosinone show they can mix it with the best. Sure, they've lost their last two, including a 3-0 thumping at Carrarese, but back on home soil, they'll fancy their chances.

Now, Modena. Sixth place looks lovely, but their form has gone right off the boil. Just two wins in their last ten matches tells you everything. They've been taking on the big boys – losses to Monza and Venezia are understandable – but a 2-0 defeat at Padova and scraping a 0-0 draw with Palermo at home shows they're struggling for wins. Their only victory in the last five was a 2-0 job at rock-bottom Pescara. Away from home, they score a bit (1.2 per game) but they also concede. They're not exactly watertight.

The head-to-head is a short one – just the one meeting this season where Modena nicked a 2-1 win at their place. That'll give them a bit of confidence, but Empoli will be itching to set the record straight in front of their own fans.

When you crunch the numbers, the bookies have Modena as favourites at 2.20. But I'm not having it. Empoli's home form, coupled with Modena's recent wobbles, makes those 3.73 odds for a home win look very tasty indeed. It's a proper value punt. The goal markets are tight – with both teams averaging around a goal each, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 might appeal to some, but it's a bit too skinny for my liking.

Key Points:

Empoli are strong at home, scoring 1.6 goals per game on average.

Modena have won just twice in their last ten matches.

Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games.

The only previous meeting this season was a 2-1 Modena win.

• The bookies favour Modena, but recent form suggests Empoli are undervalued.

The Simple Verdict:

This has all the makings of a classic 'form vs table' clash. Modena's league position is flattering their recent performances, while Empoli's home record suggests they're a tougher nut to crack than the odds imply. At a whopping 3.73, the value is all with the home side to cause a minor upset and get back to winning ways.