Notts County vs Accrington ST Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this New Year's Day cracker in League Two. Notts County welcome Accrington Stanley to town, and on paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer. The Magpies are sitting pretty in 6th, eleven points and eleven places above their visitors. But as we all know, football isn't played on paper, is it?

Notts County's season has been decent, no doubt. A +11 goal difference tells you they're doing more right than wrong. But their recent form at home? A bit dodgy, if we're being honest. Just one win in their last five at their own gaff, and they're shipping 1.6 goals a game there. They've had some tough fixtures though – a 0-0 draw with league leaders Walsall was a proper result, and that 3-2 win over MK Dons showed they can mix it with the best. The 2-0 loss at Chesterfield last time out was a setback, but they're still in the playoff hunt.

Accrington, on the other hand, are having a funny old time. They're 17th, but their form over the last ten games is actually better than Notts County's – 1.8 points per game to 1.5. The problem is, who have they been beating? Barrow, Harrogate, Oldham, Bristol Rovers. All teams in the bottom half. When they've faced the better sides like Cambridge United (lost 2-0) and Bromley (lost 1-0), they've come up short. Their away form is a mixed bag: a win, a draw, and a loss from their last three on the road.

The head-to-head is a close-run thing. Accrington have the slight edge historically with four wins to County's three. But the last time they met, back in January, it was a comfortable 3-0 win for Notts County. That'll be fresh in the memory.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have Notts County as favourites at 1.75. That's telling you they think there's about a 57% chance of a home win. I reckon that's about right, maybe even a touch generous for Accrington. County are the better side, they're at home on New Year's Day, and they need to start turning their home ground into a fortress if they want to stay in the top seven. Accrington's decent run has mostly been against the strugglers, and I fancy they'll find the going tougher against a proper playoff contender.

The goal markets are a bit of a coin flip. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.85, and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' is 1.80. County's home games have been a bit leaky, and Accrington do score a goal a game on their travels. It wouldn't shock me if both nets bulged, but I'm not convinced there's enough value there to have a proper punt.

Key Points:

Notts County are 6th, Accrington are 17th – an 11-point gap in the table.

County's home form is patchy (1 win in last 5), but they've faced strong opposition.

Accrington's good recent form (5 wins in 10) has largely come against lower-half teams.

The last meeting was a 3-0 win for Notts County in January 2025.

• County average 1.6 goals conceded per game at home; Accrington score 1.0 per game away.

All things considered, I'm backing the better team to get the job done at a fair price. The value, for me, lies with the home win.