NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the game that nobody at the bottom wants to play in but everyone's got to watch: Osijek vs Gorica. It's a proper relegation scrap, the kind where you hide behind the sofa. Osijek are having a nightmare, sitting second bottom with just two wins all season. Gorica aren't much better, but they've got a six-point cushion and a strange habit of scoring bags of goals when they leave home.

Let's start with the home side. Blimey, Osijek. One win in ten, and that was against this lot back in September. Since then? A right mess. They've conceded 19 goals in that run, including a 5-1 tonking at home to Istra 1961 just last week. Let that sink in. Five. At home. Their defence has more holes than a sieve, shipping two goals a game on their own patch. The only positive is they've become draw specialists at home recently – 1-1 with Lokomotiva, 0-0 with Varazdin – but that's like celebrating not falling over when you're already flat on your face.

Now, Gorica. They're a funny old side. Lost their last two to Slaven Belupo and Dinamo, which is no disgrace, but before that they beat Istra 1-0 and smashed Lokomotiva 4-1. The stat that makes you sit up? Their last two away games they've averaged three and a half goals! One of those was a 6-0 cup romp, but it shows they can travel and find the net. They only concede one a game on the road lately, which is still better than what Osijek are serving up.

The head-to-head history says Osijek should fancy this. They've won five of the nine meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season, and have a solid record at home against Gorica. But history is for the history books, and current form is what matters on the day. And Osijek's current form is, frankly, rubbish.

So, where's the betting value? The bookies have Osijek as slight favourites at 2.15, but I can't have that. They can't win at home. The draw at 3.10 is possible, but these are two desperate teams who need points. The away win at 3.10 is tempting – Gorica are the better side right now and score goals away – but they're also capable of a stinker.

For me, the smart money is on goals. Both teams to score is priced at 1.73, and it screams value. Osijek's games see both teams score 70% of the time. Gorica's see it 60% of the time. Osijek leak goals but have scored in three of their last four at home. Gorica score and concede on their travels. It's a recipe for goals at both ends in a nervy, scrappy affair where defences won't be on top.

Key Points:

Osijek are in dire form: 1 win in 10, conceded 19 goals.

Gorica average a bonkers 3.5 goals per game in their last two away trips.

Head-to-head favours Osijek, but current form is king.

Osijek's games see Both Teams to Score 70% of the time.

• The value isn't in picking a winner, it's in the goal markets.

Summary: This is a classic six-pointer where both teams will be desperate not to lose, but their defensive records suggest they probably will... concede, that is. I can see a nervy, open game with chances at both ends. The best bet here is for both teams to find the net.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes