AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool Prediction

Alright, grab your pint and pull up a stool – we've got a proper League One scrap on the cards at Plough Lane. AFC Wimbledon are hosting Blackpool, and if the form book means anything, the home side should be licking their lips at this fixture.

Let's start with the good news for Wimbledon fans. Your lot have been in decent nick lately – four wins from the last ten, including a cracking 3-1 victory over Bradford (who are sitting pretty in fourth) and a 3-2 thriller against Reading. Even that 1-0 win over Northampton last weekend showed you can grind it out when needed. Sure, Cardiff gave you a proper hiding (4-1) in mid-February, but Cardiff are flying high at the top of the table – no shame in that. At home, Wimbledon have been particularly tasty, winning three of their last five on their own patch and averaging 1.6 goals a game while keeping things relatively tight at the back.

Now, Blackpool. Oh dear. The Seasiders are bobbing around in 20th spot, just two points above the drop zone, and their recent form makes for grim reading if you're heading down from the North West. Five defeats in their last ten, including a couple of absolute pastings – 4-0 against Lincoln and another 4-0 against Plymouth. That's eight goals shipped in two games against sides that know where the net is. But here's the killer stat: Blackpool haven't won away from home in their last five attempts (four draws, one loss), and they're conceding over two goals a game on their travels. When you're shipping 2.2 goals per game on the road, you're asking for trouble.

The head-to-head makes pleasant reading for Wimbledon supporters too. The Dons are unbeaten at home against Blackpool in recent meetings – two wins and two draws in the last four at Plough Lane. The reverse fixture back in October ended 2-0 to Wimbledon, so they've already shown they know how to handle this opposition.

The goal expectancies back up what we're seeing – Wimbledon are expected to bag around 1.9 goals while Blackpool might manage 1.1. With the home side creating over 12 shots per game compared to Blackpool's 8.7, the attacking momentum is clearly with the hosts.

Key Points:

• Wimbledon have won 60% of their last 5 home games; Blackpool have won 0% of their last 5 away

• Wimbledon beat Bradford 3-1 and Reading 3-2 recently – showing they can mix it with the better sides

• Blackpool have conceded 4 goals in two separate away games this season (vs Lincoln and Plymouth)

• The reverse fixture in October finished 2-0 to Wimbledon

• Wimbledon are trending upward (improving goals scored and points), while Blackpool are trending downward

Summary: It's not rocket science, is it? Wimbledon are hitting their stride at home, Blackpool can't buy a win on the road, and the stats all point one way. At 2.10, the home win looks a cracking bit of value – the bookies are giving Wimbledon less than a 50% chance here, but with their home record and Blackpool's away woes, that looks stingy. Get on the home win before the odds drop.