Boston United vs Morecambe Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this National League scrap. Boston United welcome the league's bottom side Morecambe, and on paper, this looks about as one-sided as they come.

Boston are sitting pretty in 15th with 17 points from 14 games - not exactly setting the world alight, but they're doing alright. Their recent form shows they're no mugs, taking points off some decent sides. They drew 1-1 with 4th-placed Scunthorpe in their last game, and before that, they gave Carlisle (2nd place) a proper scare in the FA Cup before losing 5-2. They've had some decent results too - smashing Gateshead 3-1 away and putting four past Sunderland U21 at home.

Now for Morecambe... blimey, where do I start? They're rock bottom of the league with just 8 points from 13 games, and their recent form is absolutely shocking. They haven't won in their last 10 matches! Ten games without a win is relegation form, make no mistake. They've been shipping goals for fun too - conceding 22 in those 10 games, including a 5-0 hammering at Truro City and a 3-0 loss at home to Southend. Away from home? They've won zero of their last 8 away matches. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

The stats don't lie here. Boston are scoring 1.5 goals per game at home, while Morecambe are letting in 2.25 per game on their travels. Morecambe are averaging just 0.7 goals scored per game overall - they can't buy a goal, never mind a win.

Sometimes in football, you just have to follow the form, and Morecambe's form is absolutely dreadful. Boston aren't world-beaters, but they're solid enough at home and they're up against a team that's completely lost confidence and can't stop conceding.

Key Points:

• Morecambe haven't won in 10 matches (0W-5D-5L)

• Morecambe have 0% away win rate in their last 8 away games

• Boston have scored 1.33 goals per game at home

• Morecambe are conceding 2.25 goals per game away from home

• Boston are 15th, Morecambe are dead last (24th)

The Verdict: This looks straightforward to me. Morecambe are in a right mess and can't buy a win on the road. Boston at home should have too much for a side that's leaking goals everywhere. The odds of 1.80 for a home win look decent value to me - sometimes the simple bet is the best bet.