Barnsley vs Leyton Orient Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One clash. Barnsley and Leyton Orient are both sat on 25 points, but the Tykes have three games in hand. That's the first thing that catches the eye – Barnsley are in a better position if they can get the points on the board.

Now, form. Barnsley's last ten are a proper rollercoaster. They got walloped 5-0 by bottom-side Port Vale in the Trophy, which is a shocker, but then they turned around and smashed a decent Luton side 5-0 at home. That's the thing with this lot – you never know which Barnsley will turn up. At Oakwell, they score a handy 1.6 goals a game and only let in one. They're solid enough on their own patch.

As for the O's, their away days are a tale of two teams. One week they're putting four past Burton Albion on the road, the next they're getting tonked 4-1 at Wycombe or 4-0 at Salford. They score a fair few away (1.5 per game) but they leak goals for fun – conceding two on average. That defence on the road looks a bit wobbly.

When these two have met, it's been lively. The last game finished 3-4 to Orient back in April – a proper thriller. But dig a bit deeper and you'll see Barnsley have won two of the three times they've hosted this fixture. History says they fancy it at home.

The maths says Barnsley should be scoring here. They average 1.6 at home, Orient ship two away. On the flip side, Orient can nick a goal, but Barnsley's home defence is tighter. Both sides' form is on a bit of a slide according to the trends, so maybe not a classic.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Barnsley at 2.15 to win. Given their home record against Orient and Orient's dodgy away defending, I reckon that's a bit of value. It's not a banker, but it's the smart play.

Key Points:

Barnsley have three games in hand on Orient, both on 25 points.

Barnsley's home form is mixed but includes a 5-0 demolition of Luton.

Orient's away form is erratic: a 4-0 win at Burton but heavy defeats at Wycombe and Salford.

Head-to-head: Barnsley have won 2 of their 3 home games against Orient.

• Barnsley score 1.6 and concede 1.0 at home; Orient score 1.5 but concede 2.0 away.

The Simple Verdict: It's set up for a close one, but I'm backing Barnsley to use their home advantage and find the net against a leaky Orient defence. The price is right for a home win.