Newells Old Boys vs Rosario Central Prediction

Alright, listen up. We've got a right mismatch on our hands here in the Liga Profesional Argentina, and if you're looking for a team to be on, the answer is staring us in the face like a pint at closing time.

Newells Old Boys are in absolute tatters. We're talking zero wins from seven games this season, sitting down there in the relegation mire with just two points to their name. Their recent form reads like a horror story: beaten 2-0 by Estudiantes, thrashed 3-0 by Banfield, and that's just their last two outings. They've managed a measly seven goals in their last ten matches while shipping sixteen at the other end. At home? Don't make me laugh – they've not won any of their last five at their own gaff, losing four of them. They're creating chances (14.6 shots per home game) but can't hit a barn door with 25% accuracy.

Now look at Rosario Central. Mid-table respectability with eleven points from seven games, and crucially, they know how to win away from home. They've won half of their last four on the road and are scoring 1.25 goals per game away from home. They've just beaten Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 and before that saw off Barracas Central 2-0. Even against the big boys like River Plate and Racing Club, they've been competitive – drawing 0-0 with River and winning 2-1 away at Racing.

But here's the kicker – the head-to-head is a massacre. Rosario Central have won six of the last nine meetings, including the last five on the bounce. Newells haven't beaten them at home in four attempts (two draws, two losses). The last five meetings have all gone Rosario Central's way: 1-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0. That's five straight defeats for Newells, four of them by a single goal.

The goal expectancies tell the story too – Rosario Central are expected to bag around 1.43 goals while Newells are down at 0.80. With Newells failing to score in six of their last ten and Rosario Central keeping three clean sheets in their last ten, this has away win written all over it.

Key Points:

• Newells Old Boys are winless in seven games this season (0-2-5) and have lost their last five meetings with Rosario Central

• Rosario Central have won 50% of their last four away games and are trending upwards in both goals scored and points

• The last five H2H matches have all been won by Rosario Central, with four finishing 1-0

• Newells have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten games and are conceding 1.6 goals per game at home

• Rosario Central are available at 2.40, which represents solid value given the form gap and historical dominance

Summary: Rosario Central are the clear pick here. Newells are bereft of confidence, can't buy a win, and have a psychological block against this opponent. The 2.40 on the away win is a gift – take it before the bookies realise they've been too generous.