Blackpool vs Mansfield Town Prediction

Alright lads, gather round! Tuesday night under the lights at Bloomfield Road and we've got a right interesting scrap on our hands. Blackpool are in proper bother down in 19th, while Mansfield are sat pretty in mid-table looking to push on. Let me tell you why the away side might be the smart play here.

Blackpool are having an absolute mare at the moment, no two ways about it. Seven defeats in their last ten games tells you everything you need to know about their form. They got absolutely battered 4-0 by Plymouth at home last time out, and that's not even their worst result recently - they shipped five against Port Vale just a few weeks back! The only bright spots have been a couple of home wins against Northampton (2-0) and that 4-0 thumping of Rotherham, but those are few and far between. They're conceding two goals a game on average recently, and against a side that knows how to beat them, that's worrying.

Now Mansfield, or the Stags as the locals call 'em, are a different kettle of fish entirely. These lot are harder to break down than a safe at the Bank of England - unbeaten in their last five away from home and only lost once in their last ten overall. Sure, they love a draw (six in their last ten), including nil-nils against Leyton Orient, Exeter, Wycombe and Reading, but they also know how to win when it matters. They beat Burnley in the Cup recently and absolutely demolished Port Vale 3-0 at home.

Here's the kicker though - Mansfield have NEVER lost to Blackpool. Not once in six meetings. Four wins and two draws, including a 2-0 victory when they met back in August. That's a psychological edge you can't buy at the bookies.

Looking at the odds, the away win at 2.70 is screaming value to me. Blackpool's defense is leakier than a sieve, and Mansfield have the measure of them historically. Even with Mansfield's tendency to share the spoils, Blackpool are shipping goals for fun against sides far worse than the Stags.

Key Points:

• Blackpool have lost 7 of their last 10 games, conceding 20 goals in that run

• Mansfield are unbeaten in their last 5 away games (40% win rate, 60% draws)

• Head-to-head record: Mansfield 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses vs Blackpool

• Blackpool kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10, Mansfield kept 5

• Mansfield beat Blackpool 2-0 in the reverse fixture this season

• Goal expectancies favor Mansfield slightly (1.60 vs 1.40)

The Verdict:

Blackpool are in a right old state defensively, and Mansfield have got their number historically. At 2.70, the away win represents cracking value - I'm expecting the Stags to keep their unbeaten run against the Tangerines intact and nick all three points. Get on Mansfield to win.