Salford City vs Harrogate Town Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into this Boxing Day cracker in League Two. Salford City, sitting pretty in 6th, welcome a Harrogate Town side who are having a right old struggle down in 23rd. On paper, this looks a bit of a mismatch, but as we know, football's never that simple. Still, the numbers are telling a very clear story here.

Salford have been absolutely flying at home lately, especially in front of goal. In their last few games at their place, we've seen a 4-3 win over Colchester, a 4-0 FA Cup thrashing of Leyton Orient, and a 4-3 victory against Crawley Town. That's an average of three goals a game at home! They're proper entertainers, but the downside is they've been a bit leaky, conceding two and a half per game on their own patch. They're coming in off the back of two good league wins, including a 3-1 away victory at Barnet last time out, so the confidence will be sky-high.

Harrogate, on the other hand, are having a nightmare. They've only won twice in their last ten, and those were in the EFL Trophy. In the league, they're not picking up wins. Their last outing was a sobering 4-0 home defeat to MK Dons. The one glimmer for them is that they've become draw specialists on the road recently, nicking points at places like Notts County and Barnet. But they've not kept a clean sheet in their last ten games anywhere. Zero. Not one. They score about one a game but let in nearly two.

When these two have met, it's been mostly Salford's party. They've won five of the nine clashes, including the last two by a 2-0 scoreline. Harrogate haven't won at Salford's ground in the records we've got.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Salford at a short 1.40 to win. That's probably about right, but Harrogate's knack for an away draw puts me off a bit for a straight win bet. The real value, and the real fun, looks to be in the goals market.

Salford's home games are like a basketball match – goals at both ends. Harrogate's games often see both teams score too (60% of the time for each side recently). Put those two attacking-minded, defensively-dodgy profiles together on Boxing Day, and you've got a recipe for a few goals. The goal expectancy numbers are pointing towards over three goals for the match.

Key Points:

Salford are 6th, in form, and score an average of 3 goals per game at home.

Harrogate are 23rd, winless away, and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 10 games.

Salford's recent home games: 4-3, 4-0, 4-3. Expect entertainment.

Head-to-head favours Salford, with two 2-0 wins in the last two meetings.

• Both teams have seen Both Teams to Score in 60% of their last 10 matches.

The Simple Tip: All the signs point to goals. Salford should have too much firepower at home, but Harrogate are likely to get a consolation in what should be an open game. The smart money, and the most fun for us neutrals, is on there being at least three goals in this one.