Sevilla vs Oviedo Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Sunday afternoon clash. Sevilla, sitting 13th, welcome 19th-placed Oviedo to their gaff. On paper, it's a home banker, but as we know, football isn't played on paper, it's played on dodgy streams and in pubs like this. Let's see if the numbers add up to a nice little punt.

Sevilla's season has been a proper rollercoaster. One minute they're smashing Barcelona 4-1 at home, the next they're losing 3-1 to Mallorca in the same stadium. Their last ten show four wins, one draw, and five losses. They're scoring at a decent clip (1.5 per game) but they're leakier than a sieve, conceding 1.6 on average. At home, it's a 50/50 split from their last four – wins over Osasuna and Barca, but losses to Betis and Mallorca. The main takeaway? You just don't know which Sevilla will turn up.

Oviedo, on the other hand, are having a right old struggle. Just two wins all season and only one in their last ten – and that was way back in September at Valencia. Since then, it's been a parade of draws and defeats. They've drawn five of those ten, which tells you they're a tough nut to crack, but scoring goals is a massive problem. They've netted just seven times in ten games. Worryingly, they've failed to score in seven of those matches. Their away form is a bit more open, scoring 1.4 per game on the road, but they also concede nearly two (1.8).

When you dig into the recent results, the story gets clearer. Sevilla's last three league games read: a 1-1 draw at Valencia, a 0-2 home loss to Betis, and a 2-1 loss at Espanyol. Not great, but they were against decent sides. Oviedo's recent league run is even bleaker: 0-0 with Mallorca, 0-2 at Atletico, 0-0 with Rayo Vallecano, and a 1-0 loss at Athletic Club. They've not scored a single goal in their last three La Liga outings. That's a proper drought.

The stats are quite funny. Both teams average almost exactly the same number of shots per game (Sevilla 10.88, Oviedo 10.70). Sevilla have more of the ball (55% to 51%) but Oviedo are actually more accurate with their passing (84% to 80%). The big difference is in the nets – Oviedo's keeper is a busy boy, making nearly five saves a game on average.

Oviedo have had a couple more days' rest, but that might not count for much when you're stuck in 19th place.

Key Points:

Sevilla are wildly inconsistent but capable of brilliance (see: 4-1 vs Barcelona).

Oviedo are in a serious goal famine, failing to score in 7 of their last 10.

Oviedo draw a lot (5 in last 10) but struggle to win.

Sevilla's home form is a coin flip, but they should have too much for a side in the drop zone.

• The market has Sevilla at just shy of evens (1.91), which looks fair for a side with their advantages.

Summary: This has all the makings of a classic 'get-right' game for Sevilla. Oviedo are scrappy and draw-prone, but their attack has completely dried up. At the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, I fancy Sevilla's quality and firepower – even in its erratic state – to be the difference. The value isn't massive, but it's there. I'm backing the home side to grind out a much-needed three points.