HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this HNL top-four tussle. Hajduk Split, sitting pretty in second and breathing down Dinamo's neck, welcome an Istra 1961 side that's been scoring for fun but can't seem to buy a clean sheet. It's a classic clash of a rock-solid home defence against a free-scoring but leaky away attack. Should be a belter.

Hajduk are the form team, no two ways about it. They've won their last five on the spin, including a 2-1 win over Vukovar and a 3-1 away victory at Lokomotiva Zagreb before the break. But the real story is at home. In their last five at their own gaff, they've won four and drawn one, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and, get this, conceding just 0.4 per game. That's proper fortress stuff. They've kept clean sheets in their last two friendlies as well, so they're coming into this sharp.

Now, Istra are a funny old side. They're fourth in the league and on their day, they can beat anyone – they turned over Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at home back in November. But consistency is their issue. In their last ten, they've scored a whopping 23 goals – that's 2.3 a game – but they've also let in 12 and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Not one. Both teams have scored in a staggering 9 out of their last 10 matches. They battered Osijek 5-1 away and put three past Varazdin on the road, so they carry a real threat. But they also lost 2-1 at home to Rijeka last time out and went down 1-0 at Gorica. You just never know which Istra will turn up.

When these two met earlier in the season, Hajduk ran out comfortable 3-0 winners. History favours the hosts too, with four wins and four draws from nine meetings. But Istra did win one of the last five encounters, a 1-0 away win back in April 2025, so they're not without hope.

So, what's the play here? The bookies have Hajduk as strong favourites at 1.50, which feels about right but doesn't scream value. The goal markets are more interesting. Over 2.5 goals is at 1.95, and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' is a juicy 2.00. Given Istra's 'we'll score but you will too' policy and Hajduk's firepower at home, the BTTS bet really catches the eye. Hajduk's home defence is stout, but Istra's attack on the road averages 2.25 goals. I fancy both nets to ripple.

Key Points:

Hajduk are unbeaten in their last five home games (W4 D1), scoring 2.2 and conceding just 0.4 per game.

Istra have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches, averaging 2.3 goals per game overall.

Crucially, Both Teams to Score has landed in 90% of Istra's last 10 matches (9 times).

The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last ten outings.

• The last H2H was a 3-0 Hajduk win, but three of the previous four saw both teams score.

Summary: This has the makings of an entertaining clash. Hajduk should control proceedings at home and likely win, but Istra's potent attack and terrible defensive record make it very hard to see them leaving without scoring. The value, for me, lies in backing goals at both ends. I'm tipping Both Teams to Score - Yes at even money.