Preston vs Hull City Prediction

Alright folks, pull up a stool and let's have a butcher's at this Championship cracker. Preston at home to Hull City – it's a proper six-pointer with both sides in the playoff mix. Preston sit 5th with 43 points, Hull are 7th with 41 but have a game in hand. This one matters.

First up, Preston. They're having a decent season, but their recent form at Deepdale has been more 'meh' than magnificent. In their last six at home, they've won just once, drawing three and losing two. That's a 16.67% win rate, which ain't great. They've become draw specialists on their own patch – 1-1 with Norwich, 1-1 with Coventry (the league leaders, mind you), and 1-1 with Wrexham. Their last two outings were both 1-0 defeats, to Derby in the league and Wigan in the cup. They're solid at the back, conceding just 0.83 goals per game at home, but scoring only one a game themselves. The trend says their goals and points are on a slow decline.

Now, Hull City. Blimey, what a run they're on away from home. In their last four on the road, they've won three and drawn one. That's a 75% win rate. And they haven't been beating mugs – they went to Middlesbrough (2nd in the table) and won 1-0, went to Millwall (4th) and won 3-1, and just beat Southampton 2-1 last time out. They're scoring two goals a game on their travels. Their defence on the road isn't shabby either, conceding just one per game. Their overall form is strong – five wins in their last ten – and they're trending upwards.

When these two get together, it's often a tight affair. The head-to-head record reads: 2 Preston wins, 4 draws, and 3 Hull wins. At Deepdale, it's 1 Preston win, 2 draws, and 1 Hull win. The last meeting back in September finished 2-2. Draws, draws, draws.

So, what's the betting angle? The bookies have Preston at 2.35, the draw at 3.35, and Hull at 3.20. Now, my maths says Preston's chance of a home win is being overrated given their recent home struggles. Hull's price is tempting given their away form, but Preston are still a good side at home, just not winning many.

The value, for me, shouts from the rooftops for the draw. Preston can't stop drawing at home against good sides. Hull are flying but might find Preston a tough nut to crack. With a 44% chance in my book, and odds of 3.35 offering a nice bit of value, that's where my money's going.

Key Points:

Preston have drawn 50% of their last six home games (W1 D3 L2).

Hull are unbeaten in their last four away games, winning three of them.

The last head-to-head meeting ended 2-2.

Historically, 4 of the last 9 clashes between these sides have ended level.

• Both teams average similar possession (Preston 48%, Hull 45%) and shots per game.

Summary: This has all the makings of a tense, closely-fought battle between two well-matched sides. Preston will be hard to break down at home, but Hull's confidence on the road is sky-high. I can see them cancelling each other out. The smart money, with a bit of value, is on the points being shared.

My Tip: DRAW @ 3.35