Sampdoria vs Mantova Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this relegation six-pointer. We've got the two worst teams in Serie B going head-to-head, and frankly, it's not pretty viewing for either set of fans.

Sampdoria are sitting in 19th place with just 7 points from 10 games. They've only managed one win all season, but there are some green shoots of hope in their recent form. They've picked up draws against Empoli (1-1) and Frosinone (1-1), both decent sides in this league. Their only win came against Pescara (4-1), which shows they can score when they get going. At home, they're averaging 1.2 goals per game, which isn't world-beating but it's something.

Now for Mantova, and blimey, it's grim reading. Rock bottom of the table with 5 points, and their away form is absolutely shocking. We're talking 0% win rate on their travels and just 0.2 goals scored per game away from home! That's not a typo, folks - they basically don't score away from home. Recent results include losses to Catanzaro (1-3), Bari (1-0), and Juve Stabia (1-2). Their only point in the last five away games came from a 0-0 draw at Avellino.

The head-to-head record gives Sampdoria fans some hope - they've never lost to Mantova in two previous meetings, winning 1-0 at home last time out.

Looking at the stats, Mantova's attack on the road is virtually non-existent, while Sampdoria have shown they can find the net at home. The visitors might have plenty of possession (64.2% average) but they're not doing anything with it - just 5.2 shots on target per game away from home.

This has all the makings of a scrappy, low-scoring affair between two desperate teams. But given Mantova's complete inability to score away from home, Sampdoria's home advantage might just be enough to edge this one.

Key Points:

• Mantova have 0% win rate away from home

• Mantova score just 0.2 goals per game on their travels

• Sampdoria have never lost to Mantova in two previous meetings

• Both teams are in the bottom two of Serie B

• Sampdoria have shown some improvement with recent draws against decent teams

The odds of 1.91 for a home win look about right to me. Mantova are that bad away from home that even struggling Sampdoria should have enough to get the job done. It won't be pretty, but three points is three points when you're in a relegation scrap.