Everton vs Fulham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this mid-table scrap between Everton and Fulham. The Toffees are sitting pretty in 14th with 12 points, while Fulham are breathing down their necks in 15th with 11. It's tighter than a Scotsman at a charity auction!

Everton's recent form has been a bit hit and miss, hasn't it? They grabbed a decent point away at Sunderland (1-1), but then got absolutely spanked 3-0 at home by Tottenham. Before that, they lost 0-2 to Man City. To be fair, they did beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at Goodison, so they can turn it on when they want. At home, they're actually half-decent - winning 40% of their games and only letting in one goal per game on their own patch.

Now Fulham, well, they're a proper Jekyll and Hyde side. They've actually got a better win rate than Everton over their last 10 (40% vs 30%), and they just put Wolves to the sword 3-0 at home. But here's the killer stat - they're absolutely dreadful away from home! We're talking 0% win rate on their travels, losing 80% of their away games and conceding a whopping 2.2 goals per game. That's not just bad, that's relegation-form bad, mate.

The head-to-head doesn't look great for Everton - they've never actually beaten Fulham at home in the Premier League era. But current form counts for more, and Fulham's away form is shocking right now.

Both teams tend to score in half their games, but when you dig deeper, Everton are tight at home (1 goal conceded per game) and Fulham can't buy a goal away (0.8 scored per game). This has all the makings of a proper tight, niggly affair.

The bookies have got Everton as slight favourites at 2.15, which seems about right given the home advantage and Fulham's travel sickness. But I'm looking at the goals market here - Under 2.5 at 1.67 looks tasty to me. Everton's defence at home has been solid, and Fulham's attack away has been non-existent. Perfect recipe for a low-scoring bore-fest, which is exactly what we want for this bet!