Avai vs Athletic Club Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Avai and Athletic Club. Avai are sitting pretty in 10th with 48 points, while Athletic Club are down in 16th with 37, and there's not much left to play for with the season winding down.

Avai's recent form has been a bit of a mixed bag, hasn't it? Three wins, three draws, four losses in their last ten. But here's the thing - they've been decent against the better sides. A 1-1 draw with Criciuma (who're flying high), another 1-1 with Atletico Paranaense, and they grabbed a 2-1 win away at rock-bottom Paysandu. Problem is, their home form's been proper dodgy - only winning 20% of their last five at home. They're averaging exactly a goal per game but letting in 1.30, which ain't great.

Athletic Club, bless 'em, have been struggling something rotten. Two wins, three draws, five losses in their last ten. They've been shipping goals for fun - 1.50 per game on average - and their away form is shocking with 60% losses on the road. They did have one moment of brilliance though, putting four past Operario-PR in a 4-1 win, showing they can score when they fancy it.

The only time these two met, Athletic Club absolutely hammered them 4-0 back in July. But that's ancient history in football terms, and both teams have changed since then.

Looking at the numbers, both teams are averaging over a goal scored per game, but both are also conceding plenty. Neither side exactly specializes in clean sheets - both only managing to keep the opposition out 20% of the time. When you've got two leaky defences facing off, you usually get goals, don't you?

The trends are interesting too - Avai's form is slowly improving while Athletic Club's is heading south. That's got to count for something.

Key Points:

• Avai's home form has been poor despite their decent league position

• Athletic Club struggle on the road but can score goals (1.40 per game away)

• Both teams have leaky defences with only 20% clean sheet rates

• Both teams have scored in 50% of their recent matches

• Athletic Club won 4-0 in the only previous meeting but that was months ago

• Avai's form is improving while Athletic Club's is declining

Given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and tendency to both score and concede, I'm fancying both teams to find the net here. At 2.03, it looks like decent value for what should be an open game between two sides with little to play for but plenty of pride on the line.