GO Ahead Eagles vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eredivisie clash. GO Ahead Eagles welcome Fortuna Sittard to Deventer, and on paper, it's a proper mid-table scrap. The Eagles are 13th with 19 points, Fortuna are just two points better off in 11th. But forget the league table for a minute, the real story here is in the goals column.

GO Ahead Eagles have been about as solid at the back as a chocolate teapot lately. In their last ten games, they've not kept a single clean sheet, shipping 21 goals. That's more than two a game! At home, it's not much better, conceding two per match. But here's the twist – they can score too. They've netted in seven of those ten, including a famous 2-1 win over Feyenoord. They love a draw as well, with four in their last ten.

Fortuna Sittard aren't exactly defensive masters either. They've conceded 19 in their last ten and only managed two clean sheets. Away from home, they're scoring at a rate of one goal per game, but they've found the net in three of their last four on the road. Their recent 4-3 thriller against AZ Alkmaar shows they're up for a shootout.

The head-to-head history favours the Eagles, especially at home where they've won three of the last four meetings. But the most recent game, back in August, finished 2-2. That's a sign things might be tightening up.

When you crunch the numbers, both teams have seen 'Both Teams to Score' land in 70% of their recent matches. The bookies have it priced at 1.57, which suggests they think there's a 64% chance. I reckon the true chance is closer to 70%, and that's where we find our value. The goal expectancies point to 1.5 goals each, and with both defences looking leaky, it's hard to see either side keeping a shutout.

Key Points:

GO Ahead Eagles have no clean sheets in their last ten matches.

Fortuna Sittard have kept just two clean sheets in their last ten.

70% of both teams' recent games have seen Both Teams to Score.

The head-to-head at this ground is strong for the Eagles, but the last meeting was a 2-2 draw.

• The market odds of 1.57 for BTTS Yes offer positive value against the likely probability.

In summary, this has all the makings of an open game where both teams fancy their chances of scoring. With shaky defences and decent attacking records, backing both teams to find the net is the smart play here.