HNK Rijeka vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the big one in Croatia this weekend. HNK Rijeka welcome the league leaders Dinamo Zagreb, and on paper, it's a proper David vs Goliath job. Dinamo are sitting pretty at the top, a massive 16 points clear of Rijeka in fifth. That tells you most of what you need to know before we even kick a ball.

Rijeka's form has been a bit of a mixed bag lately. They're unbeaten in four of their last five in all comps, which sounds decent, but you've got to look at the details. They lost 1-0 to Osijek just the other day – and Osijek are down in ninth. That's a result that should raise an eyebrow. Before that, they drew 2-2 at home with Slaven Belupo. They can pull off a result, mind you, like beating Istra 1961 away or that solid 0-0 draw with Shakhtar Donetsk in Europe. At home, they score two a game on average, so they've got a bit of bite.

But then you look at Dinamo. Blimey, they've been putting teams to the sword. In their last ten, they've won six, including some proper thrashings. They stuck five past Slaven Belupo away, beat Osijek 3-0 on their patch, and just battered Vukovar 3-1. Their only recent league hiccup was a draw with Hajduk Split. They score goals for fun, especially on the road – averaging two and a half per away game. They've also got the Indian sign over Rijeka, winning five of the last nine head-to-heads, including a 2-1 win back in November.

The stats paint a clear picture. Dinamo have the best attack in the league, Rijeka have a decent defence at home but they're facing the ultimate test. Rijeka might have more of the ball at home (55.5% possession on average), but Dinamo are more clinical with their chances. And let's be honest, when the league leaders rock up with this kind of form, you'd be brave to bet against them.

Key Points:

Dinamo Zagreb are top, 16 points ahead of 5th-placed Rijeka.

Dinamo have won 5 of the last 9 meetings between these sides.

Rijeka's recent league form is shaky (loss to Osijek, draw with Slaven Belupo).

Dinamo average 2.5 goals per game on their travels.

• Rijeka score 2.0 per game at home but concede 1.0.

All things considered, the value and the logic point one way. Dinamo are the stronger side, in the better form, and the history is on their side. Rijeka will make a game of it at home, but the top dogs should have too much quality. My money's on the away win.