Preview
Right then, Monday night football from the Eerste Divisie and we've got a proper mismatch on paper. League leaders ADO Den Haag might be running away with it, but Cambuur are sitting pretty in second with 50 points from 23 games, while Jong Ajax are propping up the table with just 19 points from 25 matches. It's the classic case of the haves versus the have-nots.
Now, I know what you're thinking – 1.53 for an away win is hardly going to pay for a round at the bar, is it? But sometimes short odds are short for a reason, and this is one of those times. Cambuur have been tighter than a drum at the back lately, keeping seven clean sheets in their last ten outings and conceding just five goals in that run. Compare that to Jong Ajax, who shipped four goals against De Graafschap just over a week ago and have been leaking 1.7 goals per game on average. The young Ajax lads might have some talent, but they're learning their trade in a tough league and it shows.
That said, Jong Ajax aren't completely hopeless at home. They've won half their last four at their own patch, including a decent 2-1 victory over Willem II and a 2-0 win against Vitesse. But here's the rub – Cambuur are a different kettle of fish to those sides. When these two met back in November, Cambuur stuck four past them in a 4-1 demolition job. The visitors have also beaten league leaders ADO Den Haag twice this season, so they know how to handle themselves against the big guns.
The stats paint a clear picture: Cambuur are averaging 1.9 points per game over their last ten, while Jong Ajax are scraping by on 1.1. The visitors have also been involved in plenty of low-scoring affairs recently with three 0-0 draws in their last five, but against a side second from bottom, you'd expect their quality to tell eventually.
Key Points:
• Cambuur have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 games, conceding just 0.5 goals per game
• Jong Ajax are 20th in the table with only 19 points from 25 matches
• The reverse fixture in November ended 4-1 to Cambuur
• Jong Ajax conceded 4 goals in their last outing against De Graafschap
• Cambuur have beaten league leaders ADO Den Haag twice this season
Look, at 1.53 you're not buying a yacht with this one, but Cambuur should have too much class and organisation for a Jong Ajax side that's struggled for consistency all season. The away win is the sensible play here – sometimes you've got to take the short price when the gulf in quality is this obvious.
