Swindon Town vs Cheltenham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Tuesday night tussle between two teams nicknamed the Robins - though one's flying high while the other's barely got off the ground!

Swindon Town are sitting pretty in 2nd place, just a point off the top. Their recent form has been proper tasty - only one loss in their last ten games, and that was to West Ham's kids in a cup competition. They've been banging them in too, netting 19 times while keeping it tight at the back with only 9 conceded. That 4-0 hammering of Bolton in the FA Cup shows they can turn it on when they want.

Cheltenham, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it down in 22nd. They've managed 5 wins in their last ten, which sounds decent until you look closer. Their league form's been shaky - getting stuffed 2-0 at Colchester and losing 3-2 at Tranmere. That 6-2 win over Buxton looks good on paper, but let's be honest, that's like beating your little brother at FIFA!

Now here's where it gets interesting. Despite Swindon being miles better in the league, they've NEVER beaten Cheltenham at home. Not once! The head-to-head is proper bonkers - loads of draws and high-scoring games. Remember that 3-3 thriller last time they met? Or the 3-2 before that? These games always seem to end with both teams finding the net.

Swindon are creating more chances, averaging over 13 shots a game compared to Cheltenham's 9. But Cheltenham, despite struggling, have still been scoring regularly. Both teams have found the net in 60% of Swindon's recent games and 50% of Cheltenham's.

The stats boys are giving Swindon a goal expectancy of 1.67 to Cheltenham's 1.12, which suggests goals. And given how these matches usually go, I'm expecting both keepers to be picking the ball out of their nets.

Key Points:

• Swindon 2nd vs Cheltenham 22nd - massive league gap

• Swindon unbeaten in 9 of last 10 games

• Head-to-head madness: Swindon have NEVER won at home vs Cheltenham

• Last 5 meetings: 3-3, 3-2, 2-2, 1-1, 0-1 - always goals!

• Both teams scored in 5 of 7 previous meetings

• Swindon averaging 1.9 goals per game, Cheltenham 1.7

The Verdict: Look, Swindon should win this on paper, but football's not played on paper is it? That head-to-head record is screaming 'both teams score' at me. Swindon will likely dominate and probably win, but Cheltenham have got previous here and always seem to nick a goal. At 1.80 for both teams to score, that looks like the smart money in what's usually a goal-fest between these two.