1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln Prediction

Alright, gather 'round. We've got a proper Bundesliga basement battle here as 17th-placed Heidenheim host 11th-placed Köln. Neither side's been setting the world alight, but if you love a game where both teams fancy a goal, you might be in for a treat.

Let's look at the form, and it ain't pretty. Heidenheim have taken just 11 points from 15 games, conceding a whopping 21 more than they've scored. Their last ten tell a story of chaos: a 6-0 hiding at Bayer Leverkusen, a 4-0 thumping by Bayern, but also decent wins against SC Freiburg (2-1) and Union Berlin (2-1). They're the definition of unpredictable. The key stat? Zero clean sheets in their last ten. At home, they're shipping two goals a game on average.

Over in the Köln corner, things aren't much rosier. They've also managed just two wins in their last ten, including a recent 2-1 friendly win over FC Lugano. Their league form shows they can score – they put four past Hamburger SV – but they also let in four against Eintracht Frankfurt. Sound familiar? Yep, they've also kept zero clean sheets in that same ten-game stretch. Away from home, they're not exactly free-scoring, netting just 0.8 times per game, but they do concede a bit less on the road.

The head-to-head adds some spice. The last time these two met, Heidenheim walloped Köln 4-1. Overall, it's one win each and two draws from four meetings, with both teams scoring in three of them. History says goals.

When you crunch the numbers, it points one way. Both teams have leaky defences and attack enough to trouble each other. Heidenheim average 0.9 goals scored and 2.4 conceded overall. Köln average 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded. Put simply, they both concede more than they score. The stats show Köln are a bit tidier in possession and shot accuracy, but Heidenheim, with 20 days' rest compared to Köln's five, should be the fresher side.

Key Points:

Defensive Disasters: Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their last 10 matches.

BTTS Banker: Both teams have scored in 60% of Heidenheim's and 70% of Köln's recent games.

Home Comfort? Heidenheim's two recent wins came against mid-table sides Freiburg and Union Berlin, showing they can perform at home.

Away Blues: Köln have won just 20% of their away games this season, scoring under a goal per game on the road.

• History Repeats: Three of the last four H2H clashes saw both teams find the net.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Köln as slight favourites, but I don't see massive value there. The real value, in my book, is in the goals market. With two defences that couldn't keep a clean sheet in an empty net and both attacks capable of nicking one, Both Teams to Score - Yes looks the standout bet. It's at a decent price, and the data screams it's the most likely outcome in what should be a lively, if not technically brilliant, scrap.