1. FC Kaiserslautern vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this 2. Bundesliga clash. On paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer, innit? Kaiserslautern are sitting pretty in 6th with 27 points, while Magdeburg are down in 16th with just 14. That's a 13-point gap, which in this league is massive. You'd fancy the home side every day of the week.

But hold your horses, because football's never that simple, is it? The head-to-head record tells a completely different story. In nine previous meetings, Magdeburg have won five and lost just once. They've got Kaiserslautern's number, no doubt about it. The last time they met back in April, Magdeburg won 2-0. That's a proper hoodoo.

However, and it's a big however, when Kaiserslautern have hosted this lot, they've never lost. One win and three draws from four home games. So maybe the Fritz-Walter-Stadion is where the curse gets broken.

Let's talk recent form. Kaiserslautern have been a bit up and down. They smashed Holstein Kiel 4-1 at home and beat Dynamo Dresden 3-1, but then they went and lost 2-0 to strugglers Eintracht Braunschweig. They're scoring goals at home though – two per game on average – which is handy.

Magdeburg, on the other hand, are the kings of the surprise result. Just last week they went to Hertha BSC, who are flying high, and won 2-0. That's a proper statement win. But then they've also lost to the likes of Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum on their travels. You just don't know which Magdeburg will turn up.

The stats make for interesting reading. Magdeburg actually have the better defensive record over the last ten, keeping five clean sheets. Kaiserslautern have only managed two. But at home, Kaiserslautern concede just one goal a game and score two. That's a recipe for success.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Kaiserslautern at 2.10 to win. Given they're the better side in the table, at home, and have that unbeaten home record against Magdeburg, I think there's value there. Magdeburg's win at Hertha was impressive, but it feels like an outlier in their otherwise patchy away form. I'm backing the home side to finally get one over on their bogey team.

Key Points:

Table Talk: Kaiserslautern are 6th (27 pts), Magdeburg are 16th (14 pts).

Hoodoo Alert: Magdeburg have won 5 of the last 9 meetings, but Kaiserslautern are unbeaten at home in this fixture (1 win, 3 draws).

Home Comforts: Kaiserslautern average 2.00 goals scored per game at home.

Jekyll & Hyde: Magdeburg can beat Hertha away (2-0) but also lose to Bochum (0-2).

• Clean Sheet Kings? Magdeburg have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games.

The Simple Verdict: It's time for Kaiserslautern to lay a ghost to rest. They're the stronger side this season and are tough to beat at home. I'm backing them to get the three points.