Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you – this one's got the smell of a good braai on it. 1. FC Köln are at home on 11 October, and they're hosting a Borussia Mönchengladbach side that has been absolutely cooked in recent weeks.
Let's talk about what's been happening. Gladbach have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last five matches, and that's not a pretty picture. They lost 3-4 to FSV Mainz at home, got thrashed 0-5 at SC Freiburg (with a red card in the 52nd minute, no less), lost 3-4 to SV Elversberg at home, and were beaten 0-3 by RB Leipzig. In five games, they've scored just 7 and conceded 17. That's 3.4 goals a game leaking out of their back door. You don't fix that overnight, my friend.
Now look at Köln's home record over 20 games: 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses, 1.2 points per game, 1.7 goals scored per game. Not a fortress, but they've got a base to work from. And in the last 10 games across all venues, they've scored 2.3 per game. In fact, both teams scored in 9 of those 10. They haven't failed to score in any of their last 10 matches. That's a team that puts the ball in the net.
The head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months was a 3-3 draw back in March. So Köln haven't lost to Gladbach here recently, and the game was a goal-fest. The reverse fixture at Gladbach's ground was a 3-1 win for Gladbach. The older meetings at this venue – a 3-1 win and a 0-0 draw – are historical record only.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Köln's own form is not exactly singing. They've gone 1W 2D 2L in their last five, including a 1-4 loss to Stuttgart away and a 1-1 draw at home to Werder Bremen. They're not flying. And Gladbach's away record over 20 games is 6W 5D 9L – not great, but not a disaster. They do score 1.95 per game on the road. So you can't just write them off as a team that can't find the net.
But here's the thing: the gap in current form is massive. Four straight competitive losses for Gladbach, conceding 3.4 per game, versus a Köln side that at least has a home base and a recent 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. The numbers say Köln are the stronger side in this specific setup, and the market at 2.07 prices them at roughly 48% chance. I rate it a touch higher based on what I'm seeing in the results.
Key Points:
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding 17 goals in the process
- 1. FC Köln's home record over 20 games: 6W 6D 8L, 1.7 goals scored per game
- The most recent meeting at this ground (21 March 2026) ended 3-3
- Both teams' venue records show 15 of 20 games finishing over 2.5 goals
- Köln have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Gladbach failed to score in 2 of 5
I'm going with the 1. FC Köln home win at 2.07. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the home record gives them a base to build on. Eetjies, this one's got meat on the bone.