1. FC Köln vs FC St. Pauli Prediction
Köln vs St. Pauli: Battle of the Bottom Half
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Two sides struggling for form meet in what could be a right old scrap at the bottom of the table. Köln are sitting in 10th with 15 points, while St. Pauli are propping up the table in 17th with just 7 points - proper relegation battle stuff.
Now, Köln's recent form ain't pretty, is it? Two wins, two draws, and six losses in their last ten. They've been shipping goals for fun - 20 conceded in that run. But here's the thing, at home they've been finding the net, banging in 2.0 per game on their own patch. They put four past Hamburg not too long ago and had a right go against Frankfurt in a 3-4 defeat. The problem is, they can't keep it tight at the back - 2.4 conceded per game at home is proper leaky.
St. Pauli, bless 'em, are having an absolute nightmare. One win, one draw, and eight losses in ten. They're barely scoring - just 0.6 goals per game overall - and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten matches. That's shocking, that is. They did manage a 2-1 win over Gladbach in the cup recently, which might give 'em a bit of confidence, but in the league they've been proper poor.
Looking at the stats, both teams concede about 2 goals per game on average. Köln have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games, while St. Pauli have managed it 50% of the time. When you've got two sides this generous defensively, you're usually in for a few goals.
The head-to-head heavily favours Köln, but those matches are years old now, so I wouldn't put too much stock in that. What matters is current form, and frankly, both sides are struggling.
Given Köln's home scoring rate and St. Pauli's defensive woes, plus the fact that neither side can keep a clean sheet to save their lives, I'm expecting both teams to get on the scoresheet here.